Data is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
9/27/26
Centene (0HVB.L)
Sunday
3:44 PM
ThesisCentene: the story is balanced — Medical loss ratio (MLR) performance versus guidance - any deviation of 50-100 basis points significantly impacts…
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $196.2B — +0.7% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
01Medical loss ratio (MLR) performance versus guidance - any deviation of 50-100 basis points significantly impacts earnings given thin margins on $195B revenue base
02State Medicaid contract wins, renewals, and rate adequacy - particularly in large states like California, Texas, Florida where single contracts can represent $5-10B annual revenue
03Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and CMS reimbursement rate changes - Star Ratings drive quality bonus payments worth hundreds of millions annually
04Marketplace enrollment trends and ACA subsidy policy changes - exchange membership highly sensitive to subsidy levels and competitive dynamics
05Reserve development and prior period adjustments - given negative working capital model, reserve inadequacies create significant earnings volatility
06Medicaid managed care (estimated 60-65% of revenue) - state contracts covering low-income populations across multiple states including California, Texas, Florida, New York
07Medicare Advantage and Part D prescription drug plans (estimated 15-20%) - serving seniors and dual-eligible beneficiaries
08Health Insurance Marketplace/ACA exchange plans (estimated 10-15%) - individual coverage in 32 states
value - Currently trading at 0.1x price/sales and 1.0x price/book with 21.3% FCF yield despite negative earnings…
Rising interest rates have mixed effects: (1) Positive impact on investment income from $25-30B cash and investment portfolio…
Watch on earnings: Monthly Medicaid enrollment data by state - particularly California, Texas, Florida, New York which represent 40-50% of Medicaid membership, CMS Medicare Advantage monthly enrollment reports and Star Ratings releases - published quarterly by CMS, State Medicaid budget proposals and rate announcements - typically released January-March for July fiscal year starts.
One Sentence Summary:
Centene: the story is balanced — medical loss ratio (mlr) performance versus guidance - any deviation of 50-100 basis points significantly impacts earnings given thin.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
