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4PN.DE(4PN.DE)

$49.15—Stale · unknown old

WatchlistAsk SA Chart

4PN.DE(4PN.DE)

XETRA • Last print unknown ago

$49.15—Stale · unknown old

WatchlistAsk SA Chart Studio

4PN.DE(4PN.DE)

4PN.DE

9/28/26

Carrier Global (4PN.DE)

Monday

11:19 AM

ThesisCarrier Global: the story is balanced — Commercial construction spending and non-residential building permits (drives new HVAC system installations in offices…

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2025	FY2026E	FY2027E
Revenue	$21.7B	$23.2B	$24.4B
Rev. Growth	-3.3%	+6.8%	+4.9%
EPS	$1.77	$2.89	$3.31
EPS Growth	-71.5%	+63.5%	+14.2%
P/E (fwd)	27.8×	17.0×	14.9×

★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $23.2B — +6.8% growth in a single year.

What Moves the Stock

01Commercial construction spending and non-residential building permits (drives new HVAC system installations in offices, retail, healthcare facilities)
02US housing starts and existing home sales (residential HVAC replacement demand correlates with home turnover and new construction)
03Regulatory changes on refrigerant phase-outs and energy efficiency standards (creates replacement demand as older R-410A systems transition to lower-GWP refrigerants)
04Aftermarket service attach rates and price realization (recurring revenue growth drives multiple expansion)
05Commodity cost inflation particularly copper and steel (impacts equipment margins with 3-6 month lag before price increases offset input costs)
06HVAC systems (~60% of revenue): Commercial rooftop units, chillers, residential furnaces/heat pumps, ductless systems sold through distributors and direct channels
07Refrigeration (~25% of revenue): Trailer refrigeration units (Carrier Transicold brand), container refrigeration, commercial display cases and walk-in coolers
08Fire & Security (~15% of revenue): Building automation, fire detection panels, access control systems, video surveillance with recurring monitoring contracts

FY2025 Snapshot

Revenue: $21.7B
Rev. Growth: -3.3%
Gross Margin: 25.9%
Op. Margin: 8.9%
Net Margin: 6.9%
Net Income: $1.5B
NI Growth: -73.1%
EPS: $1.77
1Y Return: -7.1%

4PN.DE Chart

My Notes

value - Stock trades at 21x EV/EBITDA despite negative revenue growth and 73% net income decline…
Rising interest rates negatively impact Carrier through two channels: (1) Higher mortgage rates reduce housing starts and home sales…
Watch on earnings: US housing starts (HOUST) and building permits (PERMIT) - leading indicators for residential HVAC demand with 3-6 month lag, Architectural Billings Index (ABI) - predicts commercial construction activity 9-12 months forward, drives commercial HVAC orders, Copper futures (HGUSD) and aluminum prices (ALIUSD) - represent 15-20% of HVAC equipment COGS with 3-6 month pass-through lag.

One Sentence Summary:

Carrier Global: the story is balanced — commercial construction spending and non-residential building permits (drives new hvac system installations in offices, retail.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

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Metric

FY2025

FY2026E

FY2027E

P/E (fwd)

27.8×

17.0×

14.9×

What Moves the Stock

01Commercial construction spending and non-residential building permits (drives new HVAC system installations in offices, retail, healthcare facilities)

02US housing starts and existing home sales (residential HVAC replacement demand correlates with home turnover and new construction)

03Regulatory changes on refrigerant phase-outs and energy efficiency standards (creates replacement demand as older R-410A systems transition to lower-GWP refrigerants)

04Aftermarket service attach rates and price realization (recurring revenue growth drives multiple expansion)

05Commodity cost inflation particularly copper and steel (impacts equipment margins with 3-6 month lag before price increases offset input costs)

06HVAC systems (~60% of revenue): Commercial rooftop units, chillers, residential furnaces/heat pumps, ductless systems sold through distributors and direct channels

07Refrigeration (~25% of revenue): Trailer refrigeration units (Carrier Transicold brand), container refrigeration, commercial display cases and walk-in coolers

08Fire & Security (~15% of revenue): Building automation, fire detection panels, access control systems, video surveillance with recurring monitoring contracts

My Notes

value - Stock trades at 21x EV/EBITDA despite negative revenue growth and 73% net income decline…

Rising interest rates negatively impact Carrier through two channels: (1) Higher mortgage rates reduce housing starts and home sales…

Watch on earnings: US housing starts (HOUST) and building permits (PERMIT) - leading indicators for residential HVAC demand with 3-6 month lag, Architectural Billings Index (ABI) - predicts commercial construction activity 9-12 months forward, drives commercial HVAC orders, Copper futures (HGUSD) and aluminum prices (ALIUSD) - represent 15-20% of HVAC equipment COGS with 3-6 month pass-through lag.