Results are highly cyclical for AAN, so multiple-based fair value is less reliable here.
| FY | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2016 | 2017 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 26.50 | 37.15 | 25.36 | 16.04 | 11.46 | — | — | — | — |
| Low | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.37 | 16.94 | 8.10 | 6.87 | 6.78 | — | — | — | — |
| Adj EPS | 0.74 | 0.90 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 1.33 | 1.38 | 2.05 | 1.87 | 1.68 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 4.44 | 3.91 | 2.57 | 1.15 | -0.47 | 0.58E | 0.81E | 0.28E | 0.25E |
| Chg/Yr | — | +22% | +9% | +6% | +28% | +4% | +49% | -9% | -10% | +32% | +9% | +84% | -12% | -34% | -55% | -141% | — | +40% | -65% | -11% |
| Div | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.38 | — | — | — | — |
Fair value (15.0x) multiplies each year's earnings per share by a growth-based multiple: steady growers (5–15% a year) get 15x, faster growers get their growth rate as the multiple (capped at 30x), and slower growers step down below 15x. AAN has grown earnings about 6.8% a year, so the line uses 15.0x.
Earnings are adjusted figures on the same basis analysts forecast, built from reported quarters; years beyond the last completed fiscal year use the analyst consensus (dashed). The verdict calls a stock over- or undervalued only when the price sits more than 10% from the fair value line.