First read for a new ticker takes about 20–30 seconds while we build the analysis from the latest fundamentals, estimates, and intelligence. It's saved after this, so future visits are instant.
Thesis: Acadia Healthcare: the story is balanced — Same-facility revenue growth and patient days - reflects core demand trends and pricing power across existing footprint
★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $3.6B — +5.8% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Same-facility revenue growth and patient days - reflects core demand trends and pricing power across existing footprint
2Labor cost inflation and staffing ratios - contract labor and wage pressures have been primary margin headwinds, with staffing costs representing 50%+ of revenue
3Regulatory investigations and compliance issues - DOJ inquiries, state licensing actions, and quality-of-care allegations create significant headline risk
4Payer mix shifts between commercial and government - commercial rates are 2-3x higher, so shifts materially impact margins
5De novo facility openings and M&A activity - growth capital deployment and integration execution drive long-term earnings trajectory
6Inpatient psychiatric services (~65-70% of revenue): acute care hospitals and residential treatment centers for mental health and substance abuse
7Outpatient and partial hospitalization programs (~20-25%): day treatment, intensive outpatient, and community-based services
value/turnaround - The stock trades at 0.7x P/S and 1.2x P/B with negative earnings…
Rising rates increase debt service costs on the company's $1.8-2.0B debt load (estimated based on 1.36x debt/equity ratio)…
Watch on earnings: Federal Funds Rate and high-yield credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2) - directly impact refinancing costs and capital availability, Unemployment rate (UNRATE) - drives commercial insurance coverage levels and payer mix shifts, Healthcare labor cost indices and wage inflation data - primary margin driver given 50%+ labor intensity.
One Sentence Summary:
Acadia Healthcare: the story is balanced — same-facility revenue growth and patient days - reflects core demand trends and pricing power across existing footprint.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.