9/27/26
Apollo Medical (AMEH)
ThesisApollo Medical: the story is balanced — Medicare Advantage membership growth and retention rates in California markets
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $2.3B — -26.7% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
- 01Medicare Advantage membership growth and retention rates in California markets
- 02Medical loss ratio performance relative to capitation rate adequacy
- 03CMS Star Ratings for affiliated health plans affecting bonus payments and member attribution
- 04California Medicaid (Medi-Cal) rate adjustments and managed care contract renewals
- 05Regulatory changes to Medicare Advantage risk adjustment methodology or benchmark rates
- 06Capitated revenue from Medicare Advantage and Medicaid managed care contracts (estimated 75-80% of revenue)
- 07Fee-for-service revenue from direct patient care and ancillary services (estimated 15-20%)
- 08Management fees from affiliated physician groups and IPAs (estimated 5-10%)
My Notes
- value - The 0.3x P/S and 1.2x P/B ratios suggest deep value positioning despite 46.7% revenue growth.
- Rising rates moderately pressure valuation multiples for healthcare services stocks trading at growth premiums…
- Watch on earnings: CMS Medicare Advantage benchmark rate changes and Star Rating bonus payment thresholds, California Medicaid managed care per-member capitation rate adjustments, Medical loss ratio trends and medical cost inflation versus capitation rate increases.
One Sentence Summary:
Apollo Medical: the story is balanced — medicare advantage membership growth and retention rates in california markets.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
