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BHR-PB(BHR-PB)

$12.86—Stale · unknown old

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BHR-PB(BHR-PB)

NYSE • Last print unknown ago

$12.86—Stale · unknown old

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BHR-PB(BHR-PB)

BHR-PB

9/28/26

Braemar Hotels & Resorts (BHR-PB)

Monday

11:20 AM

ThesisBraemar Hotels & Resorts: the risks are mounting — Secular shift toward remote/hybrid work reducing corporate travel demand and urban hotel occupancy…

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2025	FY2026E	FY2027E
Revenue	$704M	$585M	$401M
Rev. Growth	-3.3%	-16.9%	-31.5%
EPS	$-0.36	$-1.80	$0.00
EPS Growth	+53.2%	-400%	+100%
P/E	—	—	—

★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $585M — -16.9% growth in a single year.

What Could Go Wrong

01Secular shift toward remote/hybrid work reducing corporate travel demand and urban hotel occupancy, particularly impacting business transient segments that historically provided 35-40% of revenue
02Oversupply risk in key markets if economic weakness triggers distressed asset sales or new development despite current supply constraints, compressing RevPAR and asset values
03Labor cost inflation and staffing challenges in hospitality sector (housekeeping, F&B, front desk) reducing margins as wage pressures exceed pricing power, particularly acute for full-service luxury properties
04Competition from alternative lodging (Airbnb, VRBO) capturing leisure demand in resort markets with lower cost structures and unique experiences
05Larger lodging REITs (Host Hotels, RLJ Lodging) with superior balance sheets and scale advantages in property acquisitions, brand negotiations, and capital access
06Independent luxury hotels and boutique operators offering differentiated experiences without franchise fees, potentially capturing share from soft-branded properties
07Elevated 5.6x debt-to-equity ratio creates refinancing risk, covenant pressure, and limits financial flexibility during downturns or property-level underperformance
08Negative net margin (-0.2%) and minimal ROE (-1.3%) indicate insufficient profitability to service debt and fund capital needs without asset sales or equity raises

FY2025 Snapshot

Revenue: $704M
Rev. Growth: -3.3%
Gross Margin: -1.1%
Op. Margin: 6.1%
Net Margin: -3.2%
Net Income: $-22M
NI Growth: -1218%
EPS: $-0.36
1Y Return: -13.5%

BHR-PB Chart

My Notes

value - The stock attracts deep value investors seeking recovery plays, trading at 0.3x sales and 1.0x book value despite owning…
Rising interest rates negatively impact Braemar through multiple channels: (1) Higher financing costs on floating-rate debt and refinancings…
Watch on earnings: Monthly STR (Smith Travel Research) RevPAR data for luxury/upper-upscale segments in Seattle, San Diego, Austin, and Park City markets, TSA checkpoint throughput and corporate travel indicators as proxies for business transient demand recovery, 10-year Treasury yield (GS10) and REIT equity index performance as valuation comps.

One Sentence Summary:

The bear case: secular shift toward remote/hybrid work reducing corporate travel demand and urban hotel occupancy.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

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Metric

FY2025

FY2026E

FY2027E

P/E

—

What Could Go Wrong

01Secular shift toward remote/hybrid work reducing corporate travel demand and urban hotel occupancy, particularly impacting business transient segments that historically provided 35-40% of revenue

02Oversupply risk in key markets if economic weakness triggers distressed asset sales or new development despite current supply constraints, compressing RevPAR and asset values

03Labor cost inflation and staffing challenges in hospitality sector (housekeeping, F&B, front desk) reducing margins as wage pressures exceed pricing power, particularly acute for full-service luxury properties

04Competition from alternative lodging (Airbnb, VRBO) capturing leisure demand in resort markets with lower cost structures and unique experiences

05Larger lodging REITs (Host Hotels, RLJ Lodging) with superior balance sheets and scale advantages in property acquisitions, brand negotiations, and capital access

06Independent luxury hotels and boutique operators offering differentiated experiences without franchise fees, potentially capturing share from soft-branded properties

07Elevated 5.6x debt-to-equity ratio creates refinancing risk, covenant pressure, and limits financial flexibility during downturns or property-level underperformance

08Negative net margin (-0.2%) and minimal ROE (-1.3%) indicate insufficient profitability to service debt and fund capital needs without asset sales or equity raises

My Notes

value - The stock attracts deep value investors seeking recovery plays, trading at 0.3x sales and 1.0x book value despite owning…

Rising interest rates negatively impact Braemar through multiple channels: (1) Higher financing costs on floating-rate debt and refinancings…

Watch on earnings: Monthly STR (Smith Travel Research) RevPAR data for luxury/upper-upscale segments in Seattle, San Diego, Austin, and Park City markets, TSA checkpoint throughput and corporate travel indicators as proxies for business transient demand recovery, 10-year Treasury yield (GS10) and REIT equity index performance as valuation comps.