BZH(BZH)
BZH
6/29/26
BEAZER HOMES USA (BZH)
Monday
4:11 PM
Thesis: Beazer Homes USA: the story is balanced — Monthly net new orders and cancellation rates (leading indicator of revenue 6-9 months forward)
Revenue Outlook
What Moves the Stock
- 1Monthly net new orders and cancellation rates (leading indicator of revenue 6-9 months forward)
- 2Gross margin trajectory and ability to pass through cost increases versus incentive levels
- 3Community count growth or contraction (determines revenue capacity)
- 4Mortgage rate movements and their impact on buyer affordability in the $250K-$450K segment
- 5Land acquisition strategy and inventory impairment risk
- 6Debt refinancing events and liquidity position given 0.98 D/E ratio
- 7Single-family home closings (primary revenue driver, ~95% of total)
- 8Land sales and other ancillary services (~5% of total)
FY2025 Snapshot
- Revenue
- $2.4B
- Rev. Growth
- +1.8%
- Gross Margin
- 14.2%
- Op. Margin
- 1.5%
- Net Margin
- 1.9%
- Net Income
- $46M
- NI Growth
- -67.5%
- EPS
- $1.53
- 1Y Return
- +33.3%
BZH Chart
My Notes
- value - The stock trades at 0.3x sales and 0.5x book value, attracting deep value investors betting on cyclical recovery and mean reversion.
- Extremely high sensitivity to mortgage rates.
- Watch on earnings: 30-year fixed mortgage rate (MORTGAGE30US) - primary affordability driver, Monthly housing starts and building permits (HOUST, PERMIT) - industry demand indicators, Case-Shiller Home Price Index for BZH's key markets (Texas, Florida, Arizona, Carolinas).
One Sentence Summary:
Beazer Homes USA: the story is balanced — monthly net new orders and cancellation rates (leading indicator of revenue 6-9 months forward).
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.