10/2/26
Centerra Gold (CGAU)
ThesisCenterra Gold: the story is balanced — Spot gold price movements (GCUSD futures) - primary driver given ~80% revenue exposure
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $1.8B — +30.3% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
- 01Spot gold price movements (GCUSD futures) - primary driver given ~80% revenue exposure
- 02Quarterly production guidance and actual ounces produced at Mount Milligan and Öksüt
- 03All-in sustaining cost (AISC) performance relative to $1,100-$1,300/oz guidance range
- 04Copper price movements (HGUSD) providing by-product revenue at Mount Milligan
- 05Geopolitical developments in Turkey affecting Öksüt operations and permitting
- 06Kemess underground project development timeline and capital expenditure updates
- 07Gold sales from Mount Milligan and Öksüt mines (~75-80% of revenue)
- 08Copper sales from Mount Milligan as by-product (~20-25% of revenue)
My Notes
- value/momentum - Recent 170.9% one-year return attracted momentum investors riding gold price strength.
- Gold prices exhibit strong inverse correlation to real interest rates.
- Watch on earnings: GCUSD (gold futures spot price) - primary revenue driver, HGUSD (copper futures) - by-product revenue from Mount Milligan, USD/CAD exchange rate - operating costs in CAD while revenue in USD creates FX sensitivity.
One Sentence Summary:
Centerra Gold: the story is balanced — spot gold price movements (gcusd futures) - primary driver given ~80% revenue exposure.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
