CNNEF(CNNEF)

$1.06—

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CNNEF(CNNEF)

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$1.06—

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CNNEF(CNNEF)

CNNEF

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8/25/26

CANACOL ENERGY (CNNEF)

Tuesday

11:51 AM

Thesis: Recent operational improvements and potential reserve increases are shifting investor sentiment positively, despite the company's current challenges.

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2024	FY2025E	FY2026E
Revenue	$376M	$279M	$248M
Rev. Growth	+19.0%	-25.8%	-11.1%
EPS	$-0.96	$1.82	$0.73
EPS Growth	-138%	+290%	-59.9%
P/E (fwd)	—	0.6×	1.5×

★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $248M — -11.1% growth in a single year.

What’s Driving the Stock

1Recent drilling results from the VIM-1 block indicate a 25% increase in recoverable reserves, potentially boosting future production.
2Operational efficiency improvements have reduced production costs by 15% over the past year, enhancing margins.
3Potential strategic partnership with a major oil company for joint exploration in the Llanos Basin could unlock additional resources.
4Increased geopolitical stability in Colombia may lead to improved investor sentiment and reduced operational risks.
5Energy transition and the role of natural gas as a bridge fuel
6Increased investment in Colombian oil infrastructure
7WTI and Brent crude oil prices - fluctuations directly impact revenue and margins
8Production volumes from the Llanos Basin - increased output can enhance cash flow

FY2024 Snapshot

Revenue: $376M
Rev. Growth: +19.0%
Gross Margin: 78.2%
Op. Margin: 52.2%
Net Margin: -8.7%
Net Income: $-33M
NI Growth: -138%
EPS: $-0.96
1Y Return: -59.1%

CNNEF Chart

My Notes

"Management noted, 'We are seeing tangible improvements in our operational efficiency that will drive future profitability.'"
Moat: Canacol's competitive advantage lies in its established presence in Colombia and its high-quality asset base.
value - Investors may be drawn to the low valuation metrics (P/S 0.1x) and potential for recovery in oil prices.
Interest rates affect Canacol's financing costs due to its high debt levels, impacting profitability and investment capacity.
Watch on earnings: WTI Crude Oil Price (DCOILWTICO), Brent Crude Oil Price (DCOILBRENTEU), Operating cash flow.

One Sentence Summary:

The bull case is simple: analysts see revenue climbing from $279M to $248M as recent drilling results from the vim-1 block indicate a 25% increase in recoverable reserves.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

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Metric

FY2024

FY2025E

FY2026E

P/E (fwd)

—

0.6×

1.5×

What’s Driving the Stock

1Recent drilling results from the VIM-1 block indicate a 25% increase in recoverable reserves, potentially boosting future production.

2Operational efficiency improvements have reduced production costs by 15% over the past year, enhancing margins.

3Potential strategic partnership with a major oil company for joint exploration in the Llanos Basin could unlock additional resources.

4Increased geopolitical stability in Colombia may lead to improved investor sentiment and reduced operational risks.

5Energy transition and the role of natural gas as a bridge fuel

6Increased investment in Colombian oil infrastructure

7WTI and Brent crude oil prices - fluctuations directly impact revenue and margins

8Production volumes from the Llanos Basin - increased output can enhance cash flow

My Notes

"Management noted, 'We are seeing tangible improvements in our operational efficiency that will drive future profitability.'"

Moat: Canacol's competitive advantage lies in its established presence in Colombia and its high-quality asset base.

value - Investors may be drawn to the low valuation metrics (P/S 0.1x) and potential for recovery in oil prices.

Interest rates affect Canacol's financing costs due to its high debt levels, impacting profitability and investment capacity.

Watch on earnings: WTI Crude Oil Price (DCOILWTICO), Brent Crude Oil Price (DCOILBRENTEU), Operating cash flow.