DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO (DVDCF)

Thursday

6:35 AM

Thesis: Concerns over rising input costs and potential margin compression are overshadowing the positive demand trends in the premium segment.

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2025	FY2026E	FY2027E
Revenue	$3.1B	$3.0B	$3.1B
Rev. Growth	-0.6%	-2.8%	+4.4%
EPS	$0.29	$0.30	$0.34
EPS Growth	+70.6%	+4.2%	+11.4%
P/E (fwd)	22.1×	21.2×	19.0×

★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $3.1B — +4.4% growth in a single year.

What Could Go Wrong

1Rising raw material costs for agave are expected to pressure margins, potentially reducing gross margin from 60.3% to 58% in the next quarter.
2Regulatory changes affecting alcohol advertising and sales
3Shifts in consumer preferences towards healthier alternatives
4Intensifying competition from craft distilleries and emerging brands
5Potential market saturation in key segments
6Moderate debt levels that could impact financial flexibility in downturns
7Currency fluctuations affecting international sales and profitability

FY2025 Snapshot

Revenue: $3.1B
Rev. Growth: -0.6%
Gross Margin: 60.3%
Op. Margin: 18.6%
Net Margin: 11.4%
Net Income: $346M
NI Growth: +71.8%
EPS: $0.29
1Y Return: -11.6%

DVDCF Chart

My Notes

"Management noted, 'While we see strong demand for our brands, rising costs could challenge our margin targets.'"
Moat: Campari's strong brand portfolio and global distribution network provide a durable competitive advantage.
Watch: The rise of craft spirits and local distilleries presents a significant challenge to established brands.
value - the company offers stable cash flows and a reasonable valuation relative to its peers.
Interest rates impact consumer spending and financing costs for expansion.
Watch on earnings: Consumer sentiment (UMCSENT), Retail sales growth (RSXFS), Gross margin percentage.

One Sentence Summary:

The bear case: rising raw material costs for agave are expected to pressure margins, potentially reducing gross margin from 60.3% to 58% in the next quarter.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

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