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AI Earnings SummaryQ2 2026
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Earnings Call Transcripts

Q2 2026Earnings Conference Call

Operator: Thank you for standing by. I'm Constantinos, your call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Eurobank conference call to present and discuss the second quarter 2026 financial results. All participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Fokion Karavias, CEO. Mr. Karavias, you may now proceed.

Fokion Karavias: Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, and welcome to the Eurobank first half 2026 results presentation. Together with me is our CFO, Harris Kokologiannis, and the investor relations team. We will start with some key recent developments, then present our results and answer your questions. The global environment remains fragile and challenging, with geopolitical developments weighing on market sentiment and adding to inflation. Inflationary pressures will push Euro rates higher, even as the European economy remains subdued despite a better-than-expected second quarter performance. Nevertheless, the economies in the regions where we operate have so far demonstrated remarkable resilience, supported by a number of factors. First, investment activity remains robust. In Greece in particular, the government recently unveiled a EUR 23 billion national development program for the period 2026-2030 focused on infrastructure, climate resilience, and regional economic convergence. Second, the tourism sector continues to demonstrate resilience. In both Greece and Cyprus, tourist arrivals rebounded swiftly, and current trends point to a season broadly in line with last year's strong performance. In Bulgaria, political stability has returned, providing support for economic growth. Nevertheless, the country still needs to address its budget deficit and persistent inflation. Finally, prudent fiscal management in both Greece and Cyprus has translated into strong primary surpluses. This creates the fiscal space needed to implement targeted measures that help mitigate the impact of higher energy prices and inflation on households and businesses. In this context, credit expansion has remained strong across our region. Eurobank has successfully capitalized on this favorable environment, delivering double-digit annual loan growth driven by business lending in Greece and solid momentum in both Bulgaria and Cyprus. Now, let's move on to our financial results, as highlighted on slides five to 11. Eurobank reported strong financial performance in the first half of 2026, with volumes, NII, and fee growth trends accelerated on a quarterly basis. As a result, adjusted net profit reached EUR 776 million and return on tangible book value at 16.6%. In more detail, loan growth continued unabated with a quarterly organic growth of EUR 1.6 billion. This is 10% up year-on-year. Managed funds, another key pillar of our strategy, increased by EUR 1.2 billion year to date, or 30% on an annual basis, while deposits also increased by circa EUR 3 billion over the same period. Net interest income rose 6.1% year-on-year as the quarter-on-quarter growth accelerated to 3.2%. Fees and commissions were up by 14% year-on-year, supported by a strong second quarter. As a result, core pre-provision income was up by 8% year-on-year to EUR 1.1 billion. Consequently, core operating profit reached EUR 952 million. This is 10% higher year-on-year. Let's move on our activities outside Greece. Non-Greek revenues were strong and summed up to EUR 361 million net profit, underscoring the strength and diversification of the group's franchise. This performance was driven by Cyprus, which contributed EUR 230 million, and Bulgaria, EUR 120 million in net profit. The CET1 ratio stood steady at 15.4% and the total capital ratio at 20.3%. Overall, the second quarter results demonstrate solid organic growth at a pace even faster than previously, both in Greece and across the region. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, the strength of the underlying trends give us confidence that we will exceed our full year targets. Accordingly, on slide 11, we present our updated targets revised upwards. We now expect full year 2026 EPS moving higher than our initial estimate, with its growth clearly above the 10% mark, resulting in a return on tangible book value close to 17%, compared with our previous guidance of 16%. At this point, I would like to ask our CFO, Harris Kokologiannis, to present our first half results before opening the Q&A session.

Harris Kokologiannis: Thank you, Fokion. Let's now provide more insight into the second quarter results. On page 20, on lending volumes, growth accelerated in the second quarter versus an already strong Q1, reaching EUR 1.6 billion, with EUR 0.8 billion from Greece, EUR 500 million from Bulgaria, and EUR 200 million from Cyprus. In the first half, loan increase reached EUR 2.7 billion, with a year-on-year rate at 10.5%. Based on year-to-date performance and our pipeline, we will comfortably exceed the EUR 3.8 billion full-year target to reach at least EUR 4.5 billion, which translates to a year-on-year increase of 9%. Group deposits, shown on page 21, grew significantly in the second quarter by EUR 3.1 billion, including EUR 1.4 billion from Greek corporate. Furthermore, Bulgaria and Cyprus had also a solid performance, with EUR 600 million and EUR 400 million respectively. As regards managed funds on page 24, during the quarter, managed funds rose by EUR 800 million-EUR 11 billion. Year-on-year, they are higher by EUR 2.5 billion, or by circa 30%. Private banking customers' assets and liabilities reached EUR 14.9 billion, higher by 10% year-on-year. Moving to profitability on page 28, quarter-on-quarter, net interest income increased by a solid 3.2%, reflecting higher loan and bond volumes and the Euribor effect. On a year-on-year basis, NII is higher by 6.1%. The net interest margin for the period increased to 248 basis points. Based on first half trajectory, we revised upwards our full year NII guidance from EUR 2.6 billion to more than EUR 2.7 billion. This implies a year-on-year increase of circa 7% from 2.5% before. The new estimate assumes that ECB rates will remain flat at the current level of 2.25%. Turning to fees on page 29, momentum strengthened, with fees up 3.7% quarter-on-quarter to EUR 210 million. Our focus on wealth and insurance pays off, as reflected by the 40% annual growth. Lending commissions remain solid and are higher year-on-year by 30%. Overall, group fees are higher year-on-year by 13.5%. As a result, we are revising our full-year organic growth outlook to nearly 10% from 7% previously. Moving to costs on page 30, quarter-on-quarter, OpEx remained broadly flat, with limited fluctuation expected for the rest of the year, which is in line with the outlook provided in our previous call. As a result, we reaffirm our full-year target of EUR 1.33 billion, implying a year-on-year increase of around 5.5%. On page 32, we summarize operating performance for the first half of the year. Core PPI reached EUR 1.1 billion, higher by 7.7% year-on-year. Loan loss provisions for the period amounted to EUR 148 million, or 53 basis points in line with our plan. Consequently, core operating profit reached EUR 952 million, higher by 10% year-on-year. Moving on to asset quality on page 34, NPE ratio decreased to 2.5%. Coverage decreased to 82.4% as per our guidance, driven by the utilization of overlays related with CHF loans conversion and the transfer of circa EUR 370 million household loans to Held For Sale. On capital and on page 38, CET1 ratio remained stable quarter-on-quarter at 15.4%, as organic profitability contribution was offset by strong loan and bond growth, payout accruals, and DTC acceleration. The total CAR ratio on page 39 stands at 20.3%. Overall, our first half performance is beating our initial expectations and makes us confidence to revise upwards our full year guidance, as shown on page 11. The accelerated loan and AUM growth, the upgraded NII estimate, and the strong performance in fees is driving EPS higher, with growth at levels clearly above the 10% mark. As such, return on tangible book value is expected to be close to 17% versus 16% previously. This completes my presentation, and we may open the floor for your questions.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from the line of Gabor Kemeny with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Gabor Kemeny: Well, thank you for the presentation. Firstly, on the NII guide, a big upgrade. I believe your NII was annualizing around +7% already in the Q2. Perhaps you could then help us quantify how do you think about the benefit from higher EUR rates in the H2, higher volumes, and if there is anything additional we should consider around spreads, given the competitive environment. My other question would be on tourism, actually. How do you see the trends well into the peak tourist season? If you see any possible impact indication for your businesses in either Greece and Cyprus. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Harris Kokologiannis: Let's start from the second part and then I'll take the one as regards NII guide.

Fokion Karavias: Thank you for the questions. As I mentioned in my introduction, the tourism season both in Greece and in Cyprus is doing very well. In terms of arrivals, we see a very material rebound after a couple of months of moderate pace when the war started. Based on what we see at the moment, we expect that the overall performance for the 2026 is going to be close to the record performance that we have seen in 2025. Close means slightly below, but no more than 2%-4%, let's say. Overall, the business is very good, and the business remains very good also in terms of financing these projects, as we have done in the previous years.

Harris Kokologiannis: Actually, as regards the full year guidance on NII, it has taken into account the volume effect of EUR 2.7 billion in the H1, +EUR 1.8 billion for the H2, so as to total the full year at EUR 4.5 billion. On the other hand, we have done as regards the increase of our bond position, although we may have some room for some further acquisitions up to EUR 1 billion for the rest of the year. No material change as regards deposit spreads. The annualized MREL cost, considering that we have front-loaded the major part of our issuances in the H1, and some further contraction of lending spreads, especially in corporate Greece as well as in the household in Bulgaria. Actually, these are the variables that are driving NII full year outlook at higher than EUR 2.7 billion and a year-over-year increase of +7%.

Gabor Kemeny: That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Ben Caven-Roberts with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Ben Caven-Roberts: Hello. Thank you very much for the presentation and taking the questions. Two from me, please. First, on fees, or commissions rather, you're guiding to 10% organic growth now, up from around 7%. Could you just comment on where you're seeing the biggest outperformance coming from versus your original expectations, and then where you see the main moving parts and key upside and downside risks embedded within your guidance? Secondly, on cost of risk, could you please just provide a bit more color on current trends and anything moving beneath the surface? Thank you.

Harris Kokologiannis: Let's start from the cost of risk, then I'll take about commission income.

Fokion Karavias: Yeah. In terms of asset quality, we see overall a very resilient performance. As you can see on slide 34, there is a mild formation every quarter between EUR 40 million-EUR 50 million per quarter. The NPE ratio dropped from 2.6%-2.5% at the group level and remains at very low levels, both in Cyprus at 1.7% and in Bulgaria at 2.4%. This is on slides 13 and 15 respectively. On cost of risk, was 53 basis points in the first half of the year, and we would like to stick to our guidance of circa 55 basis points for the full year 2026. Let me also comment, since you ask about cost of risk. You may have noticed that our coverage has dropped to 82.4%. This is down from 94% in the first quarter. If you recall, when we presented the guidance for the full year 2026 in February of this year, that was the indication that we have given for coverage in the area of 80%. This drop was expected and is driven by the utilization of provision overlays related with the Swiss franc loan portfolio conversion and a transfer of some loans to Held For Sale status. This explains the drop in terms of coverage. In terms of cost of risk, let me reiterate that what we have said remains valid for the full year 2026.

Harris Kokologiannis: Based on the revised full year estimate that we have done, the outperformance is coming primarily from the lending fees that were very strong in the first half of the year and the assets under management. For prudent reasons, we have kept the non-Greek commission income generation as per our initial budget. This outperformance of lending and asset management in Greece actually is driving up the full year organic growth at 10% versus 7% previously, and is enabling us to keep the full year 2026 total fees at budget levels. That implies, for the headline number of fees, a mid-teens increase despite the fact that we have Eurolife in the fee line for one quarter less. However, as regards Eurolife, let me mention again that the economic value of Eurolife in the second quarter is not lost anyway due to the agreement that we have made with the seller, but will not be booked to the fees and commissions and will be a benefit for group's NAV. On this occasion, let me update you that on Eurolife, as we have announced in our first quarter results, we have signed the contract with Fairfax in early May. Regulatory and supervisory approvals are progressing well and are moving forward, we expect the closing of the transaction to take place by the end of third quarter.

Ben Caven-Roberts: Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Mehmet Sevim with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Mehmet Sevim: Hi. Good evening. Thanks very much for your time. I have two questions, please. One on the deposit growth, which was extremely strong this quarter as far as I can see, EUR 3.1 billion, and specifically also really good inflows into site accounts as well. I was wondering what drove that, given it seems significantly larger than the ordinary moves. Is there anything transitionary in here or do you see this as sustainable? Can I also ask if this is also included in your NII guidance for this year? Secondly, on fees and the capital markets fees specifically, you participate in several investment banking deals and you look good in the league tables, that doesn't seem to be a visible impact on the commissions this quarter. I was wondering if I was reading that wrong or if you're expecting that line to improve, maybe towards the end of the year. Thanks very much.

Harris Kokologiannis: Sure. Actually, on deposits, it's coming from a number of drivers. As we said, EUR 1.4 billion is coming from Greek corporate. Another EUR 900 million is coming from the Greek retail, EUR 600 million from Bulgaria. EUR 400 million from Cyprus. I would say that a part of the Greek corporate may be less volatile than the rest. Also a small part of Bulgarian deposits. As regards Greek retail or Cyprus, I would say to a great extent, should remain stable over the next quarter. As regards the second question, I pass to Fokion.

Fokion Karavias: Yeah. Indeed, we have seen a number of capital market transactions in which the bank has participated, but what we report in fees under capital markets include also a number of other stuff that show some seasonality. If you compare the reading of this quarter, which was EUR 14 million versus the second quarter of 2025 at EUR 10 million, it shows a material increase, which to a great extent reflects the increased activity of capital markets in the second quarter of 2026. Unless we have another pipeline of transactions, we don't expect any additional fees beyond what we report on a regular basis.

Mehmet Sevim: Super. That's very helpful. Thank you. If I may follow up again on the deposit question, would you expect that line to grow any further in the second half of the year, just given the scale of the growth this quarter? Would you have any insights into what's driving this? Is this simply just a very strong economic picture across the group, or is there anything specific going on?

Harris Kokologiannis: As far as retail is concerned, the answer is yes. It's mainly a result of the economic growth. As regards corporate, we have to note that there are some idiosyncratic transaction of, for example, substantial share capital increases. We are talking about inflows and to a great extent from outside the country. It's a number of drivers, actually. Now, going forward, I would say that by the end of the year, we shouldn't expect any material fluctuation. By the end of the year, you should incorporate in your model some flattish movement.

Mehmet Sevim: That's great. Thanks very much, Harris. Thank you, Fokion.

Fokion Karavias: Thank you very much, Mehmet.

Operator: As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from the line of Noemi Peruch with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Noemi Peruch: Hello. Thank you for taking my question. I just have one on the Swiss franc mortgages. If you could just update us on the participation rate that you're seeing and the average loss on this portfolio as the deadline has been extended to September. Thank you.

Fokion Karavias: Thank you for the question. I could say that overall, this Swiss franc conversion law that was voted in December of 2025 has received a rather warm welcome by borrowers. At least, this is what we've seen on our numbers. So far, more than 50% of our balances that are within the perimeter of the law have participated. This is EUR 800 million. About 60% of the number of borrowers that have also been participated. The average loss is between 16%-18%, and we expect that this flow will continue until the end of September. You said very correctly that this is when the law will be still applicable, and we expect that the participation in terms of amount will increase from the current levels close to two thirds of the initial perimeter.

Noemi Peruch: Thank you. Do you think the current amount of provisions are enough to cover such trend? Thank you.

Fokion Karavias: Yes. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to clarify that. As you may recall, we had assumed in the past a countercyclical provisioning strategy. We have prudently provided for these loans, and therefore, even for the higher participation that we expect, we are fully provided.

Noemi Peruch: Thanks.

Operator: Once again, to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Karavias for any closing comments. Thank you.

Fokion Karavias: Thank you all for participating on this call for the second quarter results. I would like to thank also all of you that with your questions, you help us to clarify and give details on our results. Let me wish a relaxing summer break for those of you that you're going to have the opportunity to take one. We're going to be available, Harris, myself, and the investor relations team, for any further questions. Thank you very much.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling. Have a good afternoon.

Data is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.