E.I.D.- Parry (India) (EIDPARRY.NS)

What Moves the Stock

1. 01Domestic sugar realization prices - currently ₹37-39/kg wholesale; 10% price change impacts EBITDA by 15-20%
2. 02Government ethanol blending policy announcements - target increased from E10 to E20 by 2025-26, driving distillery expansion capex
3. 03Monsoon rainfall and cane availability in Tamil Nadu/Andhra Pradesh - 15-20% below-normal rainfall reduces crushing volumes by 10-15%
4. 04Export quota allocations - India is world's 2nd largest sugar producer; export subsidies/restrictions materially impact domestic supply-demand
5. 05Cane arrears and State Advised Price (SAP) revisions - higher SAP in Uttar Pradesh/Maharashtra creates competitive pressure
6. 06Sugar manufacturing and sales (~65-70% of revenue) - white crystal sugar sold to institutional buyers, FMCG companies, and wholesale markets
7. 07Ethanol production (~15-20% of revenue) - fuel-grade ethanol supplied to oil marketing companies under government-mandated blending program
8. 08Co-generation power (~8-12% of revenue) - bagasse-based renewable energy sold to state electricity boards

EIDPARRY.NS Chart

My Notes

• value - Stock trades at 0.5x P/S and 4.5x EV/EBITDA, below historical 6-7x range…
• Moderate sensitivity through two channels: (1) Working capital financing costs for cane procurement loans (typically 90-120 day cycles…
• Watch on earnings: Domestic sugar spot prices (NCDEX futures) - benchmark for realization trends, Government ethanol procurement prices and blending percentages - announced quarterly by Ministry of Petroleum, India Meteorological Department monsoon forecasts for Tamil Nadu/Andhra Pradesh - June-September rainfall critical for October-April crushing season.