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FNNNF(FNNNF)

$5.20—Stale · unknown old

WatchlistAsk SA Chart

FNNNF(FNNNF)

OTC • Last print unknown ago

$5.20—Stale · unknown old

WatchlistAsk SA Chart Studio

FNNNF(FNNNF)

FNNNF

9/28/26

Finnair (FNNNF)

Monday

8:37 AM

ThesisFinnair: the story is balanced — Russian airspace reopening speculation - any diplomatic developments suggesting potential route normalization would be…

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2025	FY2026E	FY2027E
Revenue	$3.1B	$3.5B	$3.6B
Rev. Growth	+1.9%	+12.0%	+2.2%
EPS	$0.09	$0.48	$0.34
EPS Growth	-50.0%	+431%	-28.9%
P/E (fwd)	57.8×	10.9×	15.3×

★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $3.5B — +12.0% growth in a single year.

What Moves the Stock

01Russian airspace reopening speculation - any diplomatic developments suggesting potential route normalization would be material given the 2-3 hour detour penalty on Asian routes
02Asian capacity deployment decisions - management's willingness to operate loss-making Asian routes versus redeploying capacity to European/leisure markets directly impacts unit revenue and margins
03Jet fuel prices (Brent crude correlation) - fuel represents 25-30% of operating costs with limited hedging given balance sheet constraints, creating direct P&L sensitivity
04EUR/USD exchange rate - significant USD-denominated costs (fuel, aircraft leases) versus EUR revenue base creates FX translation risk
05Finnish government support signals - state ownership (55.8% stake) provides implicit backstop but any capital injection or restructuring announcements move the stock materially
06Passenger revenue from scheduled services (estimated 80-85% of total) - primarily European short/medium-haul and Asia long-haul routes
07Cargo revenue (estimated 10-12%) - belly freight on passenger aircraft plus dedicated freighter operations
08Ancillary revenue (estimated 5-8%) - baggage fees, seat selection, onboard sales, loyalty program

FY2025 Snapshot

Revenue: $3.1B
Rev. Growth: +1.9%
Gross Margin: 9.2%
Op. Margin: 2.1%
Net Margin: 0.6%
Net Income: $18M
NI Growth: -50.3%
EPS: $0.09
1Y Return: +43.6%

FNNNF Chart

My Notes

value/distressed - The stock attracts deep value investors betting on Russian airspace reopening (binary geopolitical catalyst)…
Rising rates negatively impact Finnair through multiple channels: (1) Higher financing costs on floating-rate debt and aircraft lease…
Watch on earnings: Brent crude oil spot price - direct pass-through to jet fuel costs with 1-2 month lag, representing 25-30% of operating expenses, EUR/USD exchange rate - fuel and lease payments denominated in USD while revenue primarily EUR creates natural short USD position, Helsinki Airport passenger traffic volumes - published monthly, leading indicator of Finnair's load factors and pricing environment.

One Sentence Summary:

Finnair: the story is balanced — russian airspace reopening speculation - any diplomatic developments suggesting potential route normalization would be material given.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

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Metric

FY2025

FY2026E

FY2027E

P/E (fwd)

57.8×

10.9×

15.3×

What Moves the Stock

01Russian airspace reopening speculation - any diplomatic developments suggesting potential route normalization would be material given the 2-3 hour detour penalty on Asian routes

02Asian capacity deployment decisions - management's willingness to operate loss-making Asian routes versus redeploying capacity to European/leisure markets directly impacts unit revenue and margins

03Jet fuel prices (Brent crude correlation) - fuel represents 25-30% of operating costs with limited hedging given balance sheet constraints, creating direct P&L sensitivity

04EUR/USD exchange rate - significant USD-denominated costs (fuel, aircraft leases) versus EUR revenue base creates FX translation risk

05Finnish government support signals - state ownership (55.8% stake) provides implicit backstop but any capital injection or restructuring announcements move the stock materially

06Passenger revenue from scheduled services (estimated 80-85% of total) - primarily European short/medium-haul and Asia long-haul routes

07Cargo revenue (estimated 10-12%) - belly freight on passenger aircraft plus dedicated freighter operations

08Ancillary revenue (estimated 5-8%) - baggage fees, seat selection, onboard sales, loyalty program

My Notes

value/distressed - The stock attracts deep value investors betting on Russian airspace reopening (binary geopolitical catalyst)…

Rising rates negatively impact Finnair through multiple channels: (1) Higher financing costs on floating-rate debt and aircraft lease…

Watch on earnings: Brent crude oil spot price - direct pass-through to jet fuel costs with 1-2 month lag, representing 25-30% of operating expenses, EUR/USD exchange rate - fuel and lease payments denominated in USD while revenue primarily EUR creates natural short USD position, Helsinki Airport passenger traffic volumes - published monthly, leading indicator of Finnair's load factors and pricing environment.