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★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $8.8B — +1.9% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Organic volume trends in core food and beverage end markets, particularly cereal, frozen foods, and beverage multi-packs where GPK has 30-40% market share
2Recovered fiber (OCC - old corrugated containers) pricing, which represents 15-20% of COGS and exhibits high volatility ($50-150/ton swings)
3Pricing realization in annual customer negotiations, typically 60-90 day lag to input cost changes
4Mill utilization rates and ability to absorb fixed costs across 8 major paperboard mills
5M&A activity and integration execution, given history of consolidation plays (AR Packaging discussions, past Bell acquisition)
6Folding cartons for food and beverage applications (~65-70% of revenue, including cereal, frozen foods, beverage multi-packs)
7Coated recycled board (CRB) and coated unbleached kraft (CUK) paperboard production (~20-25%, both captive use and merchant sales)
8Specialty packaging including foodservice, consumer products, and flexible packaging solutions (~10-15%)
value - The stock trades at distressed multiples (0.3x P/S, 0.9x P/B, 6.1x EV/EBITDA) attracting deep value investors betting on cyclical…
Rising interest rates create dual pressure: (1) increased debt service costs on $4.7B gross debt (mix of fixed and floating)…
Watch on earnings: Recovered fiber (OCC) spot pricing per ton - tracks input cost volatility, US retail food and beverage sales growth - proxy for end market demand, Industrial capacity utilization in paper manufacturing - indicates industry supply/demand balance.
One Sentence Summary:
Graphic Packaging: the story is balanced — organic volume trends in core food and beverage end markets, particularly cereal, frozen foods.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.