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★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $2.0B — +5.4% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Federal budget appropriations and continuing resolutions - delays or cuts to EPA, DOE, HHS, and infrastructure spending directly impact contract funding and new business pipeline
2Contract recompete win rates and new contract awards - quarterly book-to-bill ratios above 1.0x signal revenue growth, while major recompete losses (contracts typically $50M-$200M) create revenue cliffs
3Billable utilization rates and labor margin - movement above/below 75% utilization threshold significantly impacts profitability given high fixed cost base
4Organic revenue growth vs acquisition activity - investors distinguish between 3-5% organic growth from existing contracts versus inorganic growth from M&A, which carries integration risk
5Federal government consulting (estimated 50-55% of revenue): policy analysis, digital transformation, climate/energy programs for agencies like EPA, DOE, HHS, and DoD
6State/local government and commercial (estimated 30-35%): transportation infrastructure, utility modernization, healthcare analytics, disaster recovery planning
7Technology solutions and software (estimated 10-15%): proprietary platforms for regulatory compliance, energy efficiency tracking, and data analytics
value - The stock trades at 0.7x price/sales and 9.8x EV/EBITDA, below historical averages…
Rising rates create modest headwinds through higher borrowing costs on the company's $400M+ debt (0.61 debt/equity ratio)…
Watch on earnings: Federal discretionary spending levels for EPA, DOE, DOT, and HHS - track appropriations bills and agency budget requests, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) implementation pace - monitor quarterly obligation rates for climate, energy, and transportation programs, Government-wide contract recompete calendar - track upcoming rebids for major contracts in the $100M+ range.
One Sentence Summary:
ICF International: the story is balanced — federal budget appropriations and continuing resolutions - delays or cuts to epa, doe, hhs.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.