Intrepid Potash (IPI)

What Moves the Stock

1. 01Global potash benchmark pricing (Vancouver/Midwest spot prices) - company is a price-taker with minimal hedging
2. 02North American agricultural planting intentions and fertilizer application rates (corn, soybeans, wheat acreage)
3. 03Production volume guidance from Carlsbad and Moab facilities - weather impacts evaporation rates
4. 04Input cost inflation (energy, chemicals, labor) affecting cash cost per ton
5. 05Competitor capacity announcements or supply disruptions (Nutrien, Mosaic, Belarus/Russia export restrictions)
6. 06Potash (muriate of potash/MOP) sales - estimated 60-70% of revenue, sold to agricultural distributors and industrial customers
7. 07Trio (specialty multi-nutrient fertilizer containing potassium, magnesium, sulfate) - estimated 20-25% of revenue, premium pricing to specialty crop growers
8. 08Langbeinite and byproduct sales (salt, magnesium chloride) - estimated 10-15% of revenue

IPI Chart

My Notes

• value/distressed - Stock trades at 0.9x book with negative earnings, attracting deep value investors betting on cyclical recovery in potash…
• Low direct impact given minimal debt (0.01 D/E ratio), but rising rates indirectly affect agricultural economics by increasing farmer…
• Watch on earnings: Potash spot prices (Vancouver and U.S. Midwest benchmarks) - track weekly pricing from CRU, Fertecon, or Green Markets, USDA crop acreage reports and fertilizer application rate surveys - leading indicators of North American potash demand, Corn and soybean futures prices (ZCUSX, ZSUSX) - proxy for farmer income and fertilizer affordability.