Watch on earnings:Residential HVAC revenue growth and price/mix contribution versus volumeOperating margin expansion/contraction and incremental margins on revenue changesFree cash flow generation and cash conversion (typically 90-100% of net income)Backlog levels in commercial HVAC segment (indicates forward revenue visibility)Dealer inventory weeks on hand and sell-through rates
Key metrics:U.S. housing starts (HOUST) and single-family permits as leading indicator for new construction HVAC demand · Existing home sales and median home price trends (CSUSHPINSA) indicating replacement market health · Copper futures (HGUSD) and aluminum futures (ALIUSD) as primary raw material cost drivers with 6-9 month pass-through lag · Commercial construction spending (nonresidential) for light commercial HVAC demand visibility