U.S. housing starts and existing home sales (drives new construction HVAC demand and replacement cycle activity)
Residential HVAC replacement demand driven by equipment age demographics and weather extremes (hot summers accelerate replacement)
Commercial construction spending trends, particularly retail, warehouse, and light industrial segments
Raw material cost inflation (copper, steel, aluminum) and company's ability to implement price increases with 6-9 month lag
moderate-high - Residential replacement demand (60-65% of residential revenue) provides stability as equipment failure drives non-discretionary replacement regardless of economic conditions. However, new residential construction (20-25% of total revenue) and commercial construction (22% of revenue) are highly cyclical and correlate with GDP growth, employment, and business investment. During 2008-2009 recession, revenue declined 28% as new construction collapsed. Company benefits from aging U.S. housing stock (median home age 40+ years) creating secular replacement tailwind.
Rising mortgage rates reduce housing affordability, slowing new home construction and dampening new HVAC installations. 100 basis point increase in 30-year mortgage rates historically correlates with 8-12% decline in housing starts within 12 months. However, existing homeowners staying in homes longer due to rate lock-in effect may accelerate replacement demand as equipment ages. Commercial segment sensitive to financing costs for construction projects, with 6-12 month lag as projects already financed proceed. Higher rates also pressure valuation multiples for industrial stocks, with LII trading 15-20x forward P/E versus 18-22x in low-rate environments.
Regulatory efficiency mandates (SEER2, future refrigerant transitions from R-410A to A2L refrigerants) require significant R&D investment and create pre-buy/digestion cycles that distort quarterly comparisons
Climate change driving milder winters could reduce furnace replacement demand in northern markets, though hotter summers increase cooling demand
Potential shift toward heat pump adoption (driven by Inflation Reduction Act incentives) disrupts traditional gas furnace/AC split system sales, requiring product portfolio adaptation
value - Stock trades at 15-17x forward P/E versus historical 18-20x due to near-term headwinds from SEER2 transition and soft new construction. Attracts value investors seeking exposure to housing recovery and replacement cycle demographics. ROE of 78.9% and consistent FCF generation ($600M+ annually) appeal to quality-focused value managers. Recent 18.9% three-month rally suggests tactical buyers entering on stabilization signs, though 1-year performance of -8.6% reflects cyclical concerns.
Trend
+5.4% vs SMA 50 · -2.4% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $5.3B $5.2B–$5.3B | — | $22.91 | — | ±1% | High14 |
FY2026(current) | $5.6B $5.5B–$5.7B | ▲ +6.3% | $24.28 | ▲ +6.0% | ±7% | High17 |
FY2027 | $5.9B $5.7B–$6.0B | ▲ +5.3% | $26.59 | ▲ +9.5% | ±13% | High17 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
NEW YORK and NEW ORLEANS , May 05, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC (“KSF”) and KSF p…
lennox international inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets a range of products for the heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration markets in the united states, canada, and europe. the company operates in three segments: residential heating & cooling, commercial heating & cooling, and refrigeration. the residential heating & cooling segment provides furnaces, air conditioners, heat pumps, packaged heating and cooling systems, indoor air quality equipment and accessories, comfort control products, and replacement parts and supplies for residential replacement and new construction markets. the commercial heating & cooling segment offers unitary heating and air conditioning equipment, applied systems, controls, installation and service of commercial heating and cooling equipment, and variable refrigerant flow commercial products for light commercial markets, as well as rooftop units, split system/air handler combinations, and variable refrigerant
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LII◀ | $522.20 | +1.43% | $18.2B | 23.2 | -273.3% | 1513.3% | 1498 |
| $904.59 | -1.67% | $420.9B | 44.5 | +429.0% | 1312.8% | 1523 | |
| $286.68 | +2.20% | $299.5B | 34.4 | +1848.2% | 1898.2% | 1489 | |
| $172.87 | -0.02% | $232.8B | 32.1 | +974.1% | 759.8% | 1487 | |
| $224.38 | +1.39% | $176.9B | 81.0 | +3449.4% | 249.7% | 1503 | |
| $410.86 | -2.74% | $159.4B | 40.0 | +1033.0% | 1489.7% | 1507 | |
| $264.01 | +0.23% | $156.7B | 21.7 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1506 | |
| Sector avg | — | +0.12% | — | 39.5 | +1081.1% | 1448.0% | 1502 |