Melco International Development (MDEVF)

Monday

3:58 PM

ThesisRecent trends in VIP gaming turnover and potential regulatory easing in Macau have improved sentiment around Melco's recovery prospects.

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2025	FY2026E	FY2027E
Revenue	$24.5B	$42.3B	$44.4B
Rev. Growth	-32.2%	+72.6%	+4.8%
EPS	$0.50	$0.26	$0.51
EPS Growth	+196%	-48.7%	+96.9%
P/E (fwd)	0.8×	1.5×	0.8×

★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $42.3B — +72.6% growth in a single year.

Why Revenue Could Explode

01Recent reports indicate a 15% increase in VIP gaming turnover in Macau, suggesting a potential recovery in high-end gaming demand.
02Melco's expansion plans for a new luxury resort in Macau could increase market share by 10% upon completion.
03Increased marketing efforts targeting mainland Chinese tourists could drive a 20% increase in visitor numbers over the next year.
04Potential regulatory easing in Macau could lead to higher gaming revenues, with estimates suggesting a 25% increase in GGR.
05Recovery of the Asian tourism sector post-pandemic
06Shift towards luxury experiences in the gaming industry
07Macau gaming revenue trends, particularly VIP and mass-market segments
08Regulatory changes impacting gaming licenses in Macau

FY2025 Snapshot

Revenue: $24.5B
Rev. Growth: -32.2%
Gross Margin: 43.3%
Op. Margin: 21.5%
Net Margin: 4.3%
Net Income: $1.1B
NI Growth: +235%
EPS: $0.50
1Y Return: -44.3%

My Notes

"Management indicated, 'We are seeing early signs of recovery in the VIP segment, which is crucial for our growth.'"
Moat: Melco's strong brand and premium offerings create a durable competitive advantage in the luxury gaming market.
growth - Investors looking for exposure to the recovery of the gaming and tourism sectors in Asia.
Higher interest rates can increase financing costs for new developments and acquisitions…
Watch on earnings: Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR), Visitor arrivals to Macau, Average spend per visitor.

One Sentence Summary:

The bull case is simple: analysts see revenue climbing from $42.3B to $44.4B as recent reports indicate a 15% increase in vip gaming turnover in macau.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

Writing up the research noteFirst read for a new ticker takes about 20-30 seconds while we build the analysis from the latest fundamentals, estimates, and intelligence. It's saved after this, so future visits are instant.