AG MORTGAGE INVESTMENT TRUST (MITT-PA)

Saturday

11:38 AM

Thesis: Recent trends in rising interest rates and potential housing market slowdowns are creating a more cautious outlook for mortgage REITs, including AG Mortgage.

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2025	FY2026E	FY2027E
Revenue	$473M	$87M	$100M
Rev. Growth	+14.4%	-81.5%	+14.1%
EPS	$0.90	$1.07	$1.22
EPS Growth	-26.8%	+19.1%	+13.5%
P/E (fwd)	23.8×	20.0×	17.6×

★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $100M — +14.1% growth in a single year.

What Moves the Stock

1Changes in the 10-Year Treasury Yield (GS10) impacting mortgage rates and REIT valuations
2Fluctuations in the Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) affecting borrowing costs
3Trends in housing market indicators such as Housing Starts (HOUST) and S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA)
4Credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2) influencing the cost of financing
5Interest income from mortgage-backed securities (approx. 90%)
6Gains from sales of mortgage assets (approx. 10%)
7Increased demand for housing due to demographic shifts
8Growing interest in sustainable and affordable housing solutions

FY2025 Snapshot

Revenue: $473M
Rev. Growth: +14.4%
Gross Margin: 94.7%
Op. Margin: 96.9%
Net Margin: 10.3%
Net Income: $49M
NI Growth: -12.7%
EPS: $0.90
1Y Return: +5.3%

MITT-PA Chart

My Notes

"Management noted, 'We are closely monitoring the impact of rising rates on our portfolio.'"
Moat: AG Mortgage's competitive advantage is supported by its operational efficiency and high margins, though it faces significant competition.
dividend - The company offers a high free cash flow yield (25.7%), appealing to income-focused investors.
The company's profitability is sensitive to interest rate changes, as rising rates can increase financing costs and compress net interest…
Watch on earnings: 10-Year Treasury Yield (GS10), 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA).

One Sentence Summary:

AG Mortgage Investment Trust: the story is balanced — changes in the 10-year treasury yield (gs10) impacting mortgage rates and reit valuations.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

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