Results are highly cyclical for NTCO, so multiple-based fair value is less reliable here.
| FY | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.49 | 12.03 | — | — |
| Low | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8.34 | 3.76 | — | — |
| Adj EPS | 0.46 | 0.36 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.05 | -0.04 | -0.41 | -0.37E | 0.29E |
| Chg/Yr | — | -21% | -53% | -36% | +123% | -25% | -75% | -182% | — | — | — |
| Div | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.05 | — | — |
Fair value (7.0x) multiplies each year's earnings per share by a growth-based multiple: steady growers (5–15% a year) get 15x, faster growers get their growth rate as the multiple (capped at 30x), and slower growers step down below 15x. NTCO has grown earnings about -15.8% a year, so the line uses 7.0x.
Earnings are adjusted figures on the same basis analysts forecast, built from reported quarters; years beyond the last completed fiscal year use the analyst consensus (dashed). The verdict calls a stock over- or undervalued only when the price sits more than 10% from the fair value line.