NVR
Next earnings: Jul 22, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-1.21%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.6× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 33Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
5,974.07
Open
6,004.03
Day Range5,887.06 – 6,008.99
5,887.06
6,008.99
52W Range5,887.06 – 8,618.28
5,887.06
8,618.28
1% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
24.4K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
14.4x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.05
Market-like
Performance
1D
-1.21%
5D
-6.01%
1M
-12.56%
3M
-27.11%
6M
-19.16%
YTD
-19.07%
1Y
-20.05%
Worst: 3M (-27.11%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BEARISH
revenue -8% YoY
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 14x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 3.6 · FCF $442.61/sh
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$15.93B
Revenue TTM$9.70B
Net Income TTM$1.24B
Free Cash Flow$1.23B
Gross Margin22.8%
Net Margin12.8%
Operating Margin15.7%
Return on Equity32.7%
Return on Assets22.2%
Debt / Equity0.30
Current Ratio3.55
EPS TTM$445.38
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Mortgage rate movements - 100 bps change in 30-year rates materially impacts buyer affordability and traffic

Net new orders and cancellation rates - leading indicators of revenue 6-9 months forward

Gross margin trajectory - reflects pricing power versus lumber, labor, and material cost inflation

Community count growth - indicates market expansion and future revenue capacity

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Homebuilding is highly cyclical with demand tied to employment, wage growth, household formation, and consumer confidence. NVR's focus on first-time and move-up buyers (versus luxury) creates sensitivity to middle-income employment trends. Revenue declined 2.1% and net income fell 20.3% YoY, reflecting housing market normalization from 2021-2022 peaks as affordability deteriorated.

Interest Rates

Extreme sensitivity to mortgage rates, which directly impact monthly payment affordability and buyer qualification. A 100 bps increase in 30-year mortgage rates (e.g., from 6.5% to 7.5%) reduces purchasing power by approximately 10-12% and typically compresses order activity 15-25%. NVR's mortgage banking subsidiary benefits modestly from rate volatility through origination volume, but homebuilding impact dominates. The company's minimal debt (0.31 D/E) insulates it from financing cost increases.

Key Risks

Affordability crisis from structural home price appreciation outpacing wage growth, particularly acute in NVR's mid-Atlantic markets where median home prices exceed $400K

Labor shortage in skilled trades (framers, electricians, plumbers) constraining cycle times and increasing subcontractor costs 5-8% annually

Municipal impact fee and regulatory cost inflation adding $15K-30K per unit in high-growth markets

Investor Profile

value - NVR attracts quality-focused value investors seeking best-in-class homebuilder execution with superior capital efficiency (34% ROE versus peer average of 18-22%). The asset-light model, consistent buyback program, and premium valuation (5.5x P/B versus peers at 1.5-2.5x) appeal to investors willing to pay for structural competitive advantages. Limited dividend yield (0%) makes it unsuitable for income investors.

Watch on Earnings
30-year fixed mortgage rate (MORTGAGE30US) - primary affordability driverLumber futures (LBUSD) - represents 5-8% of home construction costHousing starts (HOUST) - industry-wide demand indicatorConsumer sentiment (UMCSENT) - leading indicator for discretionary home purchase decisions
Health Radar
6 strong
96/100
Liquidity
3.55Strong
Leverage
0.30Strong
Coverage
54.6xStrong
ROE
32.7%Strong
ROIC
25.8%Strong
Cash
$2.0BStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE23 analysts
HOLD
+30.5%upside to target
L $6,600.00
Med $7,700.00consensus
H $8,096.00
Buy
1043%
Hold
939%
Sell
417%
10 Buy (43%)9 Hold (39%)4 Sell (18%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 33 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 3.55 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 13, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 7, 2026
In 87 days
PDividend PaymentSep 9, 2026
In 120 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 11.2%

-10.5% vs SMA 50 · -20.5% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI32.7
Momentum fading
MACD-215.91
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$8,618+46.0%
EMA 200
$7,190+21.8%
EMA 50
$6,601+11.8%
Current
$5,902
52W Low
$5,887-0.3%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$5,8871th %ile$8,618
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:3
Edge:Even
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)24K
Recent Vol (5D)
18K-27%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 5 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$10.1B
$10.0B$10.3B
$513.48
±2%
Moderate3
FY2024
$10.5B
$10.4B$10.6B
+3.5%$496.52-3.3%
±2%
High5
FY2025
$10.1B
$9.9B$10.2B
-3.9%$421.80-15.0%
±2%
Moderate4
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryNVR
Last 8Q
+0.5%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 2 Estimates falling
Q3'24
Q4'24
+9%
Q1'25
-11%
Q2'25
+2%
Q3'25
+3%
Q4'25
+15%
Q1'26
-13%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
ZelmanUnderperform → Neutral
Jan 29
UPGRADE
ZelmanUnderperform
Jul 12
DOWNGRADE
Deutsche BankHold
Dec 7
UPGRADE
UBSNeutral
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
2 Buys/4 SellsNet Selling
NET BUYERS$74K bought · $0 sold · 30d window
Devito Michael JDir
$74K
Apr 24
BUY
Ross Susan Williams…Dir
$1.6M
Feb 13
SELL
Kelpy Matthew B.VP, Chief Acco…
$4.0M
Feb 10
SELL
Ross Susan Williams…Dir
$1.6M
Feb 5
SELL
Ross Susan Williams…Dir
$1.8M
Feb 4
SELL
Devito Michael JDir
$99K
Nov 3
BUY
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
58K
2
Boston Partners
58K
3
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
40K
4
Nuveen, LLC
29K
5
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\
24K
6
DIAMOND HILL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC
21K
7
Legal & General Group Plc
19K
8
TD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC
18K
News & Activity

NVR News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

nvr, inc. is a top 5 us homebuilder and an industry leading company. with more than 65 years of experience building quality homes and successful careers, and our standing as the most profitable publicly traded homebuilding company in the us, nvr has developed our reputation for stability & responsibility. as a market leading homebuilder, nvr operates throughout 27 metropolitan areas in 15 states under the brand names of ryan homes, nvhomes, foxridge homes, and newly acquired heartland homes. we are the dominant homebuilder in each of our markets and have constructed more than 365,000 homes while maintaining a commitment to quality product & customer care. nvr mortgage’s primary focus is to serve the needs of nvr homebuyers while nvr settlement services provides a complete range of settlement and title services to support nvr’s homebuilding operations. at the corporate level, nvr provides various support functions and an intertwined network of resources utilized by each of its co

CEO
Paul Saville
Eugene James BredowPresident & Chief Executive Officer
Matthew KelpyVice President, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller
Daniel David MalzahnSenior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer
PeersConsumer Cyclical(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
NVR
$5902.04-1.21%$15.9B13.3-208.3%1297.8%1480
$268.99-1.35%$2.9T31.8+1237.8%1083.4%1519
$445.00+4.02%$1.7T371.3-293.1%400.1%1500
$311.40-1.91%$310.2B21.8+324.0%859.6%1480
$274.60-0.42%$195.1B22.5+372.3%3185.0%1480
$148.91-0.73%$164.8B30.5+711.9%910.0%1506
$226.06-1.37%$126.6B19.0+312.2%771.2%1491
Sector avg-0.42%72.9+351.0%1215.3%1494