New York Mortgage Trust (NYMTL)

Monday

11:23 AM

ThesisThe market is increasingly concerned about rising interest rates and their potential impact on mortgage-backed securities valuations, leading to a cautious outlook.

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2025	FY2026E	FY2027E
Revenue	$149M	$199M	$200M
Rev. Growth	-70.7%	+33.4%	+0.2%
EPS	$1.12	$0.87	$1.00
EPS Growth	+198%	-22.0%	+14.0%
P/E (fwd)	20.3×	26.0×	22.9×

★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $199M — +33.4% growth in a single year.

What Moves the Stock

01Changes in interest rates, particularly the 10-Year Treasury yield, which affects mortgage rates and spreads
02Fluctuations in credit spreads impacting the valuation of mortgage-backed securities
03Regulatory changes affecting mortgage lending and securitization
04Trends in housing market demand and home price appreciation
05Interest income from mortgage-backed securities (70%)
06Gains on sale of mortgage loans (20%)
07Other income (10%)
08Increased demand for housing due to demographic shifts

FY2025 Snapshot

Revenue: $149M
Rev. Growth: -70.7%
Gross Margin: 0.0%
Op. Margin: 0.0%
Net Margin: 67.7%
Net Income: $101M
NI Growth: +263%
EPS: $1.12
1Y Return: +12.7%

My Notes

"Management noted, 'We are closely monitoring interest rate trends as they could significantly impact our portfolio's performance.'"
Moat: The company's focus on a diversified portfolio of agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities provides a moderate level of competitive…
value - The stock's low price-to-book ratio indicates potential undervaluation, appealing to value investors.
Rising interest rates can compress net interest margins, making it more expensive to finance mortgage-backed securities…
Watch on earnings: 10-Year Treasury yield, High Yield Credit Spreads (OAS), 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate.

One Sentence Summary:

New York Mortgage Trust: the story is balanced — changes in interest rates, particularly the 10-year treasury yield, which affects mortgage rates and spreads.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

Writing up the research noteFirst read for a new ticker takes about 20-30 seconds while we build the analysis from the latest fundamentals, estimates, and intelligence. It's saved after this, so future visits are instant.