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Thesis: E.W. Scripps: the story is balanced — Political advertising revenue - presidential/midterm cycles can add $200-400M in incremental revenue with 70%+…
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $2.2B — +3.6% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Political advertising revenue - presidential/midterm cycles can add $200-400M in incremental revenue with 70%+ flow-through to EBITDA
2Retransmission fee negotiations and renewals - multi-year contracts covering 20-30% of subscriber base typically renew annually with 5-10% rate increases offsetting subscriber losses
3Cord-cutting acceleration - each 1% decline in MVPD subscribers reduces retrans revenue by $8-12M annually
4Local advertising trends - automotive (20% of local ad revenue) and services spending sensitive to regional economic conditions
5Debt refinancing and leverage management - 2.2x debt/equity with $1.8-2.0B gross debt requires active liability management
6Core advertising (local and national spot) - estimated 40-45% of revenue, highly cyclical with political years
7Retransmission consent fees from MVPDs - estimated 35-40% of revenue, recurring but facing cord-cutting pressure
8Network distribution and other revenue - estimated 15-20%, includes ION network affiliate fees and digital
value - The 0.2x P/S, 0.2x P/B, and 74% FCF yield attract deep-value investors betting on political cycle monetization and potential private…
Rising rates negatively impact Scripps through two channels: (1) higher refinancing costs on $1.8-2.0B debt stack…
Watch on earnings: US MVPD subscriber count (Nielsen/SNL Kagan data) - tracks cord-cutting velocity, Automotive advertising spending trends (national and regional) - leading indicator for 20% of local ad revenue, Political advertising spending forecasts for 2026 midterms - Kantar/AdImpact projections.
One Sentence Summary:
E.W. Scripps: the story is balanced — political advertising revenue - presidential/midterm cycles can add $200-400m in incremental revenue with 70%+ flow-through to ebitda.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.