Starwood Property Trust, Inc.(STWD)

$16.82▲0.21 (1.26%)

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Starwood Property Trust, Inc.(STWD)

NYSE

$16.82▲0.21 (1.26%)

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STWD(STWD)

STWD

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6/28/26

STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST (STWD)

Sunday

8:44 AM

Thesis: The recent decline in loan origination volumes and rising delinquency rates have raised concerns about the sustainability of Starwood's revenue streams.

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2025	FY2026E	FY2027E
Revenue	$1.9B	$2.1B	$2.2B
Rev. Growth	-7.9%	+10.7%	+7.7%
EPS	$1.22	$1.72	$1.91
EPS Growth	+8.0%	+40.6%	+11.2%
P/E (fwd)	13.8×	9.8×	8.8×

★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $2.1B — +10.7% growth in a single year.

What Could Go Wrong

1Starwood's loan origination volume decreased by 15% YoY, indicating potential demand softening in the commercial real estate market.
2Increased delinquency rates on commercial loans have risen to 4%, raising concerns about credit quality.
3Regulatory changes affecting REIT tax structures and capital requirements
4Technological disruption in real estate financing and property management
5Increased competition from traditional banks and alternative lenders in the commercial real estate space
6Emergence of fintech companies offering innovative financing solutions
7High leverage ratio (Debt/Equity of 3.47) increases financial risk during economic downturns
8Liquidity risk due to low current ratio (0.08) which may limit operational flexibility

FY2025 Snapshot

Revenue: $1.9B
Rev. Growth: -7.9%
Gross Margin: 80.5%
Op. Margin: 76.2%
Net Margin: 21.9%
Net Income: $412M
NI Growth: +14.3%
EPS: $1.22
1Y Return: -8.0%

STWD Chart

My Notes

"Management noted, 'We are closely monitoring market conditions as we navigate through these challenging times.'"
Moat: Starwood's extensive borrower relationships and diversified portfolio provide a moderate level of competitive advantage.
Watch: The rise of fintech lenders could disrupt traditional mortgage financing models, posing a significant threat to Starwood's market position.
dividend - Starwood offers an attractive dividend yield, appealing to income-focused investors.
Starwood's profitability is sensitive to interest rate fluctuations as rising rates increase borrowing costs for its clients…
Watch on earnings: Federal Funds Rate, High Yield Credit Spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2), Commercial real estate price indices.

One Sentence Summary:

The bear case: starwood's loan origination volume decreased by 15% yoy, indicating potential demand softening in the commercial real estate market.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

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Metric

FY2025

FY2026E

FY2027E

P/E (fwd)

13.8×

9.8×

8.8×

What Could Go Wrong

1Starwood's loan origination volume decreased by 15% YoY, indicating potential demand softening in the commercial real estate market.

2Increased delinquency rates on commercial loans have risen to 4%, raising concerns about credit quality.

3Regulatory changes affecting REIT tax structures and capital requirements

4Technological disruption in real estate financing and property management

5Increased competition from traditional banks and alternative lenders in the commercial real estate space

6Emergence of fintech companies offering innovative financing solutions

7High leverage ratio (Debt/Equity of 3.47) increases financial risk during economic downturns

8Liquidity risk due to low current ratio (0.08) which may limit operational flexibility

My Notes

"Management noted, 'We are closely monitoring market conditions as we navigate through these challenging times.'"

Moat: Starwood's extensive borrower relationships and diversified portfolio provide a moderate level of competitive advantage.

Watch: The rise of fintech lenders could disrupt traditional mortgage financing models, posing a significant threat to Starwood's market position.

dividend - Starwood offers an attractive dividend yield, appealing to income-focused investors.

Starwood's profitability is sensitive to interest rate fluctuations as rising rates increase borrowing costs for its clients…

Watch on earnings: Federal Funds Rate, High Yield Credit Spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2), Commercial real estate price indices.