TSCO
Next earnings: Jul 23, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bullish Setup3
Price
1
Move+1.12%Positive session
Volume
1
Volume2.1× avgHeavy volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 15Oversold — bounce setup
PRICE
Prev Close
30.25
Open
30.71
Day Range30.25 – 31.07
30.25
31.07
52W Range30.17 – 63.99
30.17
63.99
1% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
8.3M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
15.1x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.02%
Beta
0.91
Market-like
Performance
1D
-1.31%
5D
-8.91%
1M
-32.82%
3M
-44.53%
6M
-45.92%
YTD
-39.51%
1Y
-42.62%
Worst: 6M (-45.92%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +5% YoY
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 15x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 1.4 · FCF $1.11/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$16.04B
Revenue TTM$15.65B
Net Income TTM$1.08B
Free Cash Flow$584.78M
Gross Margin32.5%
Net Margin6.9%
Operating Margin9.3%
Return on Equity42.6%
Return on Assets9.3%
Debt / Equity2.55
Current Ratio1.38
EPS TTM$2.05
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Comparable store sales growth - driven by transaction count and average ticket, with 2-4% comps considered healthy

Gross margin performance - mix shift between consumables (lower margin) and big-ticket discretionary items (higher margin)

New store productivity - ability to maintain 30%+ IRRs on 80-90 annual unit openings in smaller markets

Rural consumer health - livestock prices, farm income, rural employment trends affecting discretionary spending

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - Consumable products (feed, bedding, pet food) representing 50% of sales provide defensive revenue base with low elasticity. However, big-ticket discretionary purchases (tractors, trailers, generators, riding mowers) are highly cyclical and correlate with rural disposable income, farm profitability, and consumer confidence. Rural unemployment and agricultural commodity prices directly impact customer spending capacity.

Interest Rates

Moderate sensitivity through two channels: (1) Higher rates reduce affordability of big-ticket financed purchases like tractors and UTVs, compressing discretionary sales; (2) TSCO carries $3.9B debt (3.73x D/E) with weighted average rate near 4.5%, so rising rates increase annual interest expense by $15-20M per 100bps move. Valuation multiple compression also occurs as 19.6x EV/EBITDA re-rates lower when risk-free rates rise.

Key Risks

E-commerce encroachment - Amazon and Chewy expanding rural delivery for consumables (pet food, livestock supplies), though bulky/heavy items and immediacy needs provide partial moat

Rural population stagnation - long-term demographic shift toward urban areas could limit addressable market growth, though hobby farming and rural lifestyle trends partially offset

Big-box expansion into rural markets - Walmart, Home Depot, and Lowe's opening smaller-format stores in sub-50K population towns, directly competing on price and assortment

Investor Profile

value - Stock trades at 1.9x sales and 19.6x EV/EBITDA with 2.5% FCF yield, attracting investors seeking defensive growth in fragmented specialty retail. Consistent 4% revenue growth, 44% ROE, and $700M annual free cash flow support $500M+ annual buybacks (1.7% yield). Appeals to investors wanting rural/agricultural exposure with less commodity volatility than pure-play agriculture stocks.

Watch on Earnings
Live cattle futures (LEUSX) and feeder cattle (GFUSX) - proxy for livestock farmer profitability and feed demandCorn futures (ZCUSX) - primary livestock feed input cost affecting both farmer economics and TSCO product costsGasoline prices (RBUSD) - impacts rural consumer discretionary spending and store traffic patternsConsumer sentiment (UMCSENT) - leading indicator for big-ticket discretionary purchases
Health Radar
2 strong2 watch2 concern
51/100
Liquidity
1.38Watch
Leverage
2.55Concern
Coverage
21.2xStrong
ROE
42.6%Strong
ROIC
12.3%Watch
Cash
$194MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE25 analysts
HOLD
+86.3%upside to target
L $36.00
Med $57.00consensus
H $63.00
Buy
1352%
Hold
1144%
Sell
14%
13 Buy (52%)11 Hold (44%)1 Sell (4%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
0 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 15 — Oversold, watch for bounce
~
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.38
~
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 13, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 7, 2026
In 87 days
PDividend PaymentAug 13, 2026
In 93 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 18.2%

-28.3% vs SMA 50 · -41.3% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI15.1
Oversold — potential bounce
MACD-3.67
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$63.99+109.2%
EMA 200
$49.51+61.8%
EMA 50
$40.76+33.2%
Current
$30.59
52W Low
$30.17-1.4%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$30.171th %ile$63.99
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:13
Edge:+10 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)8.7M
Recent Vol (5D)
17.5M+101%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 21 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$15.6B
$15.5B$15.7B
$2.10
±2%
High19
FY2026(current)
$16.2B
$16.1B$16.3B
+3.8%$2.13+1.8%
±4%
High21
FY2027
$17.1B
$17.0B$17.3B
+5.5%$2.31+8.3%
±6%
High20
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryTSCO
Last 8Q
-22.9%avg beat
Beat 3 of 8 quartersMissed 5 Estimates falling
-80%
Q3'24
+1%
Q4'24
-81%
Q1'25
-8%
Q2'25
+1%
Q3'25
+2%
Q4'25
-7%
Q1'26
-11%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Analysts turning cautious
30d01
90d01
Piper SandlerOverweight → Neutral
May 5
DOWNGRADE
CitigroupBuy → Positive
Jan 8
DOWNGRADE
JefferiesHold → Buy
Nov 24
UPGRADE
Evercore ISIOutperform
Nov 5
UPGRADE
CitigroupBuy
Oct 9
UPGRADE
Raymond JamesStrong Buy → Outperform
Feb 2
DOWNGRADE
Bank of America Sec…Buy → Underperform
Dec 15
DOWNGRADE
Gordon Haskett Capi…Buy
Feb 20
UPGRADE
Exane BNP ParibasOutperform
Jan 12
UPGRADE
CFRABuy
Oct 21
UPGRADE
Bank of America Sec…Buy
Jun 14
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Yankee ColinEVP Chief Supp…
$260K
Feb 13
SELL
Yankee ColinEVP Chief Supp…
$43K
Feb 13
SELL
Yankee ColinEVP Chief Supp…
$315K
Feb 13
SELL
Barton Kurt DCFO
$101K
Feb 10
SELL
Mills Robert DEVP Chief Tech…
$3.4M
Feb 11
SELL
Estep Jonathan SEVP Chief Mer…
$3.2M
Feb 11
SELL
Financials
Dividends3.04% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield3.04%
Quarterly Div.$0.2400
Est. Annual / Share$0.96
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN
5.7M
2
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
5.3M
3
ENVESTNET ASSET MANAGEMENT INC
4.3M
4
Legal & General Group Plc
3.8M
5
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO
3.0M
6
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
2.9M
7
UBS Group AG
2.5M
8
PROVIDENT TRUST CO
2.4M
News & Activity

TSCO News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

don’t let our name fool you. sure, we may know a thing or two about tractors. but at tractor supply company, it’s far from our only specialty. our loyal customers come to us for expertise, advice, and thousands of products every day—from lawn and animal care products to equipment, and even clothing. it’s helped make us an important part of the communities we serve, and one of the nation’s fastest growing retail organizations. we proudly celebrate over 75 years years of service. founded in 1938 by charles e. schmidt, sr. as a mail order tractor parts business, today tractor supply is the largest operator of retail farm stores in america. our stores are located in rural communities and in the outlying areas of large cities—“out here”—where people feel a deep connection with their land. our customers are as diverse as the products we carry: from farmers and ranchers to pet owners and hobbyists, construction and trades people, and suburban landowners. no matter what they’re looking for,

CEO
Harry Lawton
Brad RogersSenior Vice President, Real Estate & Construction
Colin W. YankeeExecutive Vice President & Chief Supply Chain Officer
Craig LedbetterSenior Vice President, Distribution & Operations
PeersConsumer Cyclical(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
TSCO
$30.59-1.31%$15.9B14.7+430.6%706.1%1465
$265.82-1.35%$2.9T31.8+1237.8%1083.4%1519
$433.00+4.02%$1.7T371.3-293.1%400.1%1500
$310.46-1.91%$310.2B21.8+324.0%859.6%1480
$274.84-0.42%$195.1B22.5+372.3%3185.0%1480
$150.26-0.73%$164.8B30.5+711.9%910.0%1506
$224.52-1.37%$126.6B19.0+312.2%771.2%1491
Sector avg-0.44%73.1+442.2%1130.8%1492