Ternium (TX)

What Moves the Stock

1. 01Mexican automotive production volumes and USMCA-driven nearshoring announcements affecting flat-rolled steel demand
2. 02Argentinian construction activity and government infrastructure spending given the country's 50%+ revenue contribution
3. 03Hot-rolled coil (HRC) price spreads in regional markets versus seaborne import prices from Asia and Brazil
4. 04Iron ore and metallurgical coal cost inflation impacting integrated mill economics
5. 05Currency movements in Mexican peso and Argentine peso affecting translation and local purchasing power
6. 06Flat steel products for automotive and white goods manufacturing (estimated 40-45% of revenue, primarily Mexico operations)
7. 07Construction-grade steel products including rebar, structural sections, and coated sheets (estimated 35-40%, Argentina and regional markets)
8. 08Industrial and energy sector steel products including line pipe and specialty grades (estimated 15-20%)

TX Chart

My Notes

• value - The stock trades at 0.5x price-to-sales and 0.7x price-to-book with 6.3x EV/EBITDA…
• Rising interest rates negatively impact Ternium through multiple channels: higher financing costs for customers' equipment purchases…
• Watch on earnings: Midwest US hot-rolled coil steel prices as benchmark for North American flat-rolled pricing power, Mexican automotive production and assembly volumes (AMIA monthly data) indicating demand for flat steel, Iron ore 62% Fe fines spot prices (Qingdao) and premium hard coking coal prices affecting raw material costs.