DCA vs Lump-Sum
Compare dollar-cost averaging vs lump-sum outcomes with full volatility modeling
Dollar-Cost Averaging vs Lump-Sum
$
mo
mo
%
%
Median Outcomes
12mo DCA · 60mo hold · 15% volLump-Sum (Median)
$729,676
P10: $442,023
DCA (Median)
$711,269
P10: $435,719
DCA Win Rate
36.1%
Avg -$24,722 vs lump-sum
Lump-SumDCA
Volatility & Average Cost Basis
DCA's primary value: smoothing variance during volatile entry periods
Lump-Sum Std Dev
$298,349
outcome dispersion
DCA Std Dev
$272,760
8.58% less than lump-sum
Avg Cost Basis (DCA)
1.0327
3.27% above day-1 price
Total Window
72 mo
6.0 years
Vanguard 2012: lump-sum beat DCA in ~67% of historical 10-year periods because markets trend up. DCA's advantage is reducing sequence-of-returns risk if the client deploys right before a downturn — and protecting the client's regret tolerance.