AI CapEx, Inference, and Who Gets Paid: The 2026 Filing Scorecard

The job is simple. Separate the checks being written for AI capacity from the revenue that capacity is already earning, and from the backlog that is only a promise until it is recognized.

NVDA is still the incumbent. Concede that up front. In the quarter ended April 26, 2026, Data Center was $75.2 billion of $81.6 billion of revenue. The rest of the stack is who is paying for those chips, who is renting the resulting compute, and whether inference — running the models, not just training them — shows up as a line item. Most filings still will not give you that split. They will give you CapEx, cloud, and remaining performance obligations. That is enough to keep score.

This post uses two sources: live Stock Alarm quotes (August 14, 2026) and the latest 10-Q or 10-K for each name, plus SpaceX's August 4, 2026 8-K. The Stock Alarm ecosystem map is the company graph. The filings are the cash.

The spenders

Four hyperscalers plus Oracle and SpaceX wrote the big checks. Cash-flow CapEx, latest reported quarter, from Stock Alarm financials that track the filings:

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta alone put about $165 billion of CapEx on the table in one calendar quarter. That is the demand print. It is not revenue.

SpaceX is the new column. SPCX is on the Stock Alarm tape at $1.82 trillion. It is not yet a hub on the public ecosystem map next to NVDA and the clouds. The 8-K still prints an AI segment with its own revenue, operating loss, and CapEx. Treat it as a buyer until that P&L turns.

CapEx vs AI revenue

The CapEx table above is cash out. What cash is coming back in from AI? The filings name two counterparties by dollar: OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither files a 10-Q or 10-K. What you get is the other side of the ledger.

Microsoft (MSFT), 10-K year ended June 30, 2026 and 8-Ks:

Microsoft holds an approximate 25% interest in OpenAI on an as-converted basis (FY26 10-K), an equity-method investment from a long-term strategic partnership originally signed in 2019 and extended in October 2025 and April 2026. OpenAI is a related party under ASC 850.

FY2026 revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI, inclusive of revenue-sharing payments: $24.1 billion (10-K). Accounts receivable from OpenAI as of June 30, 2026: $6.0 billion. That $24.1 billion is Microsoft's revenue from OpenAI — not OpenAI's own revenue. Say it again: Microsoft is the seller, OpenAI is the buyer. The 10-K says Microsoft "will continue to receive revenue-sharing payments" and holds rights to OpenAI IP including models and infrastructure.

Total funding commitments related to the investment: $13.0 billion. Funded as of June 30, 2026: $11.9 billion. The 10-K's non-GAAP excludes net gains and losses from investments in OpenAI; FY26 net income and diluted EPS increased $5.0 billion and $0.67 from those gains.

8-K EX-99.1 filed July 29, 2026: Q4 Microsoft Cloud $59.3 billion (+27%), Q4 Intelligent Cloud $39.306 billion (+32%), Azure and other cloud services +43% in Q4 (+41% for the fiscal year). Nadella: "This year, Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time." That is a threshold, not an exact Azure dollar. Same exhibit: "Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats." Also: a $3.2 billion gain from Microsoft's investment in Anthropic in Q4 FY26. Anthropic is not named in the FY26 10-K body.

8-K EX-99.1 filed April 29, 2026: "Our AI business surpassed an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion, up 123% year-over-year." That is Microsoft's AI business run rate, not OpenAI revenue.

8-K EX-99.2 filed October 29, 2025: investment in OpenAI Group PBC "valued at approximately $135 billion, representing roughly 27 percent on an as-converted diluted basis." Also: "OpenAI has contracted to purchase an incremental $250B of Azure services." Neither figure — the $135 billion valuation nor the $250 billion Azure contract — is restated in the FY26 10-K.

Amazon (AMZN), 10-Q quarter ended June 30, 2026 and 8-K EX-99.1:

Amazon's AI disclosure in the 10-Q is commitments and equity, not revenue. The 8-K EX-99.1 is where the AI line appears.

The exhibit: "Exceeded a $25 billion annual revenue run rate for AWS's AI business, growing triple-digit percentages year-over-year." Also: "our AI and Chips businesses each eclipsed run rates of more than $25 billion." Those are run-rate thresholds, not quarterly AI dollars. AWS itself was $42.2 billion in Q2, a "$169 billion annualized revenue run rate."

PPE purchases in Q2: $54.208 billion. The TTM FCF note attributes a year-over-year increase of $66.1 billion in PPE to investments "primarily" in artificial intelligence. Q3 guide: net sales $197–202 billion; operating income $22.5–26.5 billion.

OpenAI: In Q1 2026, AWS and OpenAI Group PBC announced expansion of the existing $38.0 billion multi-year commitment by $100.0 billion over 8.0 years, including obligations related to performance of AWS chips. Amazon invested $28.7 billion in OpenAI Series C Preferred Stock for the six months ended June 30, 2026, including $13.7 billion in Q2. An equity commitment letter covers additional Series C with an aggregate purchase price of $35.0 billion; Q2 funded $13.7 billion of that. Subsequent to June 30, 2026, Amazon funded the remaining commitment of $21.3 billion.

Anthropic: In Q2 2026, AWS and Anthropic announced expansion of the strategic collaboration and existing multi-year commitment by more than $100.0 billion over 10.0 years. From Q3 2023 through Q4 2025, Amazon invested $8.0 billion in convertible notes. In Q2 2026, Amazon invested $5.0 billion in Series G nonvoting preferred and $5.0 billion in Series H preferred (the 10-Q also describes $10.0 billion of Anthropic nonvoting preferred in the cash-flow statement). A financing facility was not to exceed $20.0 billion, reduced to $15.0 billion after Series H.

The marks are not revenue. Upward adjustments on private-company equity were $50.5 billion in Q2 2026 and $62.8 billion for the six months, primarily Anthropic preferred. Preferred carrying value went from $14.8 billion at December 31, 2025 to $92.5 billion at June 30, 2026. Convertible notes fair value went from $45.8 billion to $97.9 billion. Private-company equity carrying value went from $16.2 billion to $122.3 billion, primarily Anthropic preferred and OpenAI preferred.

Alphabet and Meta: The Q2 10-Qs do not name OpenAI or Anthropic commercial revenue. Microsoft's 10-K mentions Copilot seat and usage growth as a reason for AI infrastructure investment, but there is no Copilot revenue line.

CoreWeave (CRWV), 8-K filed September 25, 2025: OpenAI OpCo order form, "committed to pay the Company up to approximately $6.5 billion through May 31, 2031."

Oracle (ORCL), 8-K EX-99.1: Q4 Total Cloud $9.9 billion (+47%); IaaS $5.8 billion (+93%); SaaS $4.1 billion. FY26 Total Cloud $34.0 billion (+39%); IaaS $18.1 billion; SaaS $15.9 billion. The exhibit: "The prepaid and customer supplied hardware portions of our large AI contracts now total $75 billion." RPO growth is "driven by the growing demand for cloud infrastructure for AI training and inferencing." FY27 total revenue guide: $90 billion.

The collectors print AI too.

NVIDIA FY26 10-K: Data Center $193.737 billion (Compute $162.361 billion; Networking $31.376 billion). Q2 FY27 revenue guide from EX-99.1: $91.0 billion ±2%. Earnings date: August 26, 2026.

Broadcom 8-K EX-99.1: "Q2 semiconductor revenue from AI of $10.8 billion grew 143% year-over-year." Q3 guide: revenue approximately $29.4 billion; AI semiconductor $16.0 billion. That is an AI line.

The bottom line: Microsoft printed $24.1 billion from OpenAI and crossed $100 billion in Azure (a threshold). Amazon crossed $25 billion AI run rate (a threshold) and printed $42.2 billion AWS. Oracle's IaaS hit $5.8 billion in Q4 with $75 billion of prepaid AI contracts. Broadcom printed $10.8 billion of AI semiconductor in Q2 and guided $16.0 billion for Q3. NVIDIA's Data Center was $193.7 billion for the fiscal year. Until OpenAI and Anthropic file their own statements, the only AI-model revenue in the public record is what the clouds collect from them, not what they collect from the world.

The collectors

CapEx leaves the hyperscaler cash-flow statement and lands as revenue at the chip and networking names.

NVIDIA (NVDA), quarter ended April 26, 2026 (10-Q):

Data Center was 92% of the company. Hyperscale grew faster than enterprise. Remaining performance obligations on contracts longer than one year were $2.6 billion. That is a product company, not a cloud book. The 10-Q says the Rubin platform is expected to start shipping in the second half of fiscal 2027. It does not split training from inference.

Broadcom (AVGO), quarter ended May 3, 2026 (10-Q) and 8-Ks: Semiconductor solutions $15.0 billion versus $8.4 billion (+79%). Infrastructure software $7.2 billion. The MD&A attributes the semiconductor jump to "strong demand for our networking solutions, primarily custom AI accelerators and AI networking products." Remaining performance obligations on firmly committed multi-year contracts: $164.6 billion.

8-K filed April 6, 2026: Broadcom, Google, and Anthropic PBC; Anthropic beginning 2027 will access through Broadcom approximately 3.5 gigawatts of TPU-based capacity. The filing says access is "dependent on Anthropic's continued commercial success." No dollar.

AMD (AMD), quarter ended June 27, 2026 (10-Q) and 8-K filed October 6, 2025: Data Center revenue $6.7 billion versus $3.2 billion. Operating income in Data Center $2.1 billion versus a $155 million loss a year earlier. The MD&A names EPYC processors and Instinct MI350 Series GPUs. The same 10-Q discloses customer agreements covering 6 gigawatts of AMD data-center GPUs, first gigawatt of each deployment on Instinct MI450, with warrants attached. No warrant tranche had vested as of June 27, 2026.

The October 2025 8-K: warrant to OpenAI OpCo, LLC for up to 160 million shares at $0.01, vesting on Instinct GPU purchase milestones. EX-99.1: 6 GW agreement; first 1 GW MI450 in 2H 2026. No dollar on the GPU commitment.

Inference: what the filings will actually say

"Inference revenue" is a search term. It is not a GAAP line at NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle, or AMD.

What you can print instead:

Cloud consumption is the run-rate proxy. That is customers paying to use compute, not just to build it.

Azure is called out as "cloud and AI consumption-based services." That is the closest Microsoft comes to an inference label. AWS and Google Cloud do not split training clusters from token serving. They do show the bill growing fast enough that the CapEx is no longer a pure hope trade.

Meta is a spender, not a cloud collector. Family of Apps was $60.4 billion in Q2, almost all advertising. Reality Labs was $431 million. The payback on $130–145 billion of 2026 CapEx has to show up in ads or it does not show up. Purchase obligations for servers, network, and data centers: $53.5 billion due in 2026 and $81.7 billion due in 2027, plus contingent cloud-capacity obligations of up to $14.7 billion.

SPCX is the only named AI P&L. Advertising $367 million. AI solutions and infrastructure $2.194 billion. Nameplate compute 1.4 GW, up from 0.4 GW a year earlier. Operating loss $1.257 billion on $15.8 billion of AI CapEx. That is a build year. The contracted $14.1 billion of Cloud Services Agreements is the inference book if those contracts get used.

Potential: backlog is not revenue

Add the contracted piles and you get a number that looks like a decade of cloud bills. Do not annualize it. Duration and cancellation rights differ, and the companies say so.

• Microsoft: $678 billion commercial RPO, weighted average duration about 2.3 years. Expects to recognize about 30% over the next 12 months.
• Alphabet: $519.5 billion backlog, $513.9 billion Google Cloud. Expects just over 50% over the next 24 months.
• Amazon: ~$496 billion of >1-year commitments, "primarily related to AWS," plus the OpenAI and Anthropic expansions disclosed in Q1 and Q2 2026.
• Oracle: $638 billion RPO. Cloud already 51% of revenue. CapEx "we expect this upward trend to continue during fiscal 2027."
• Broadcom: $164.6 billion of firmly committed multi-year contracts.
• SpaceX: $14.1 billion Cloud Services Agreements; $47.5 billion company backlog; Cursor agreement at $60 billion implied equity value, expected to close Q3 2026, not closed in the August 4 10-Q.
• NVIDIA: $2.6 billion of long-dated remaining performance obligations. The potential is the next GPU cycle (Rubin, 2H FY27), not a cloud backlog.
• AMD: 6 GW of disclosed GPU deployments. Warrants not vested. Treat as contingent until purchases land.

That is the potential the filings will defend. Anything above it is a model, not a print.

What to watch

The next tell is not a model launch. It is the next 10-Q.

1. CapEx: does Amazon stay above $50 billion a quarter, and does Meta stay inside the $130–145 billion 2026 guide.
2. Cloud growth: Azure +41%, AWS $42.2 billion, Google Cloud $24.8 billion. If those decelerate while CapEx does not, the inference story is late.
3. SPCX AI: $2.6 billion of revenue against $15.8 billion of CapEx. The $14.1 billion CSA book has to convert.
4. Collectors: NVIDIA Data Center mix (hyperscale vs enterprise), Broadcom custom AI, AMD Instinct plus those 6 GW contracts.

Stock Alarm's ecosystem view maps the supplier and customer links. The watch layer is an alert on the next CapEx print and the cloud line, not a new chat window. Pro is $20/month or $168/year.

The thesis, restated: the AI trade in the filings is a cash-flow split. Hyperscalers and SpaceX are paying. NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD are collecting. Inference is the cloud bill and the one AI segment that actually exists (SPCX). Backlog is potential. Until a company prints training versus inference, do not pretend the 10-Q did.

Sources

Stock Alarm live quotes and cash-flow statements, August 14, 2026. SEC filings only after that:

• NVIDIA 10-Q, quarter ended April 26, 2026, filed May 20, 2026 — nvda-20260426.htm
• Microsoft 10-K, year ended June 30, 2026, filed July 29, 2026 — msft-20260630.htm
• Alphabet 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 23, 2026 — goog-20260630.htm
• Amazon 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 31, 2026 — amzn-20260630.htm
• Meta 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed July 30, 2026 — meta-20260630.htm
• Oracle 10-K, year ended May 31, 2026, filed June 22, 2026 — orcl-20260531.htm
• AMD 10-Q, quarter ended June 27, 2026, filed August 5, 2026 — amd-20260627.htm
• Broadcom 10-Q, quarter ended May 3, 2026, filed June 9, 2026 — avgo-20260503.htm
• SpaceX 10-Q and 8-K EX-99.1, quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed August 4, 2026 — spcx-20260630.htm

Related: SPCX after Q2, AI picks and shovels.