SpaceX SPCX Lock-Up Expiration Dates: Employee Stock Release Schedule 2026

SPCX priced at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, raising $75 billion in the largest IPO in history. On its first day of trading — June 12 — it closed at $161, up 19.3%. The 424B4 prospectus filed that morning is where the real numbers live. All blanks filled, all share counts confirmed. This is what the actual filing says.

Key Facts — SPCX / SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.)

The Three-Segment Reality

SpaceX's public narrative is rockets and Starlink. The actual company going public is something different: a holding company of three independent businesses at very different stages of maturity, sharing a launch infrastructure and a founder.

Understanding the stock means understanding each segment separately — because their financials look almost nothing alike.

Three segments. One is printing cash. One is a decade-long infrastructure investment. One is bleeding intentionally.

Segment Deep Dive

Connectivity: The Cash Engine

Starlink is the business that makes the rest of this company possible. In 2025 it generated $11.4 billion in revenue — 49.8% year-over-year growth — with $7.2 billion in Segment Adjusted EBITDA. Operating income hit $4.4 billion, up 120% from the prior year.

As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX had approximately 10.3 million Starlink Subscribers across 164 countries — up 105% from 5.0 million a year prior. This is a business with real operating leverage: the satellite constellation cost is largely fixed, so every new subscriber is nearly pure margin. The company already operates over 23,000 inter-satellite lasers and has launched enough capacity to serve homes, enterprises, ships, aircraft, and military users across virtually every geography on Earth.

For Q1 2026, Connectivity generated $3.257 billion in revenue — annualizing to approximately $13 billion — with $1.188 billion in operating income in a single quarter.

The TAM the company claims: $1.6 trillion across $870 billion in broadband (1.8 billion global households at ~$31/month weighted average ARPU) and $740 billion in Starlink Mobile (8 billion connected devices at ~$8/month weighted average ARPU). The math is aspirational — penetration assumptions across 1.8 billion households globally at varying ARPU by income tier — but the trajectory is real.

Space: The Starship Bet

The Space segment doesn't make money today. It generated $4.1 billion in revenue in 2025 with a $657 million operating loss and only $653 million in Adj. EBITDA — but that's by design. The segment funded $3 billion in Starship R&D during 2025. Every dollar lost in the Space segment is an investment in reducing launch costs by what the company describes as "99% or more relative to the historical average."

Why does that matter? Because cheap, reusable launch is the infrastructure that makes Starlink's scale possible and that will eventually enable the AI orbital compute buildout the company is betting billions on.

The milestone to watch: the company expects Starship to begin payload delivery to orbit in H2 2026, following completion of in-orbit refueling and upper-stage reuse demonstrations. Twelve Starship flight tests have been completed as of May 2026. The 12th introduced the next-generation vehicle. In-orbit refueling — essential for lunar missions, Mars, and orbital AI data centers — has not yet been demonstrated.

AI: The Multi-Year Bet

The AI segment — xAI, Grok, and the X platform — was acquired and consolidated into SpaceX in 2025. It is the most important driver of the company's valuation and the most honest about how far away profitability is.

FY2025 numbers: $3.2 billion in revenue, negative $6.4 billion in operating income, negative $1.2 billion in Adj. EBITDA. The divergence between EBITDA and operating income reflects the gap between cash operations and the accounting treatment of the acquisition.

The capex story is the real signal: $12.7 billion in AI capex in 2025, up from $5.6 billion in 2024 and $463 million in 2023. In Q1 2026 alone, AI segment capex hit $7.7 billion — exceeding the segment's entire 2024 annual spend in a single quarter.

The company is explicit about what this means: "We expect a multi-year investment horizon before these deployments translate into sustained positive Segment Adjusted EBITDA for our AI segment."

What they're building: terrestrial data centers at massive scale, plus a planned future "orbital AI compute" infrastructure (data centers in space, powered by solar, cooled by the vacuum of space, launched on Starship). The orbital component is unproven and explicitly depends on in-orbit refueling of Starship — which hasn't happened yet.

The Consolidated Financials

Income Statement

Revenue grew 33% year-over-year. But R&D tripled year-over-year to $8.6 billion — the AI buildout — turning 2024's $791M net profit into a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 billion shows the underlying cash generation is real; the GAAP loss is the cost of growth investment.

Balance Sheet (Dec 31, 2025)

Assets nearly doubled as PP&E doubled to $42.6 billion. The capital structure is heavily layered: $22.9B in debt sits below a $38.8B preferred stack, with common equity of only $2.6B. IPO proceeds are intended to retire preferred and fund growth capex.

Cash Flow

The model is simple but stark: operations generate real cash ($6.8B), but capex is 3x larger ($20.7B), producing roughly negative $14 billion in free cash flow. That gap was plugged by $35 billion in new debt and equity in 2025. Q1 2026 capex annualizes to approximately $40 billion — the gap is widening.

The TAM: $28.5 Trillion (93% of It Is AI)

The company's stated total addressable market, excluding China and Russia:

The $22.7 trillion enterprise applications number is the entire projected global digital economy for 2026, per the Digital Cooperation Organization. SpaceX is claiming a meaningful share of all digital economic activity through Macrohard — described in the filing as combining "our frontier AI model with Tesla's physical AI prowess" into an agentic platform designed to "fully emulate digital workflows… from coding to management and entire business processes."

Beyond the quantified $28.5 trillion, the filing lists markets it describes as "multi-trillion each eventually" but declines to quantify: space tourism, in-orbit manufacturing, long-haul point-to-point travel via Starship (under 30 minutes, anywhere on Earth), a lunar economy, passenger and cargo transport to Mars, energy production on the Moon and Mars, and asteroid mining. All of these are in the prospectus. None of them exist yet as commercial markets.

The asteroid mining disclosure is notably candid: the filing states that "in-orbit refueling of Starship is essential to our lunar, Mars, asteroid mining, and other deep space ambitions beyond geostationary Earth orbit. In-orbit refueling is complex, and we have not yet demonstrated or attempted it."

The Lock-Up Schedule: When Can People Sell?

This is the most actionable section for existing investors watching supply risk.

Lock-up clocks run from June 11, 2026 (prospectus date). Three separate tracks govern different shareholder groups.

🟢 Track 1: Employees and most pre-IPO holders — 180-day lock-up (~4.6 billion shares)

The first selling window opens with a staged early-release schedule. Releases are cumulative — each percentage is of the full locked block:

The 30% condition explained: There is a bonus 10% tranche that only releases alongside the Q2 earnings window if SPCX closes at least 30% above its IPO price ($135) — meaning ≥$175.50 — on at least 5 of the 10 consecutive trading days ending on the First Earnings Release Date. SPCX closed its first day at $161 (+19.3%), so it needs to hold above $175.50 leading into Q2 earnings for this bonus tranche to trigger. If the threshold isn't met, the 10% rolls into the later time-based tranches instead.

What employees can do during the lock-up: Even within the lock-up period, employees can settle RSUs and options using "net settle" (shares withheld for taxes go back to the company) and "sell to cover" (open-market sales strictly to cover exercise price or tax withholding). This means vesting equity can be handled — employees just can't freely sell their retained shares.

Total shares in Track 1: 4.6 billion shares, representing roughly 35% of total shares outstanding.

🟡 Track 2: Certain significant investors — Extended lock-up (~1.4 billion shares)

This block has its own early-release schedule, but it starts in early 2027, not 2026:

🔴 Track 3: Elon Musk — ~6.4 billion shares, locked until June 12, 2027

Musk's entire position — roughly 6.4 billion shares including Class B common stock underlying options — is locked for 366 days with zero early-release provisions. The filing is explicit: "Our founder's shares are not subject to any early release provisions during the lock-up period."

The combined Musk + extended investor block represents 7.8 billion shares — more than 63% of pre-IPO shares outstanding — that won't be available for sale until at least Q1 2027, and Musk's piece not until June 2027.

The Supply Overhang Calendar

Here's what all this means for SPCX supply in the public market:

• Now through late July: Only the 555M IPO shares plus any Rule 144-eligible pre-IPO shares are tradeable. Tight float.
• Late July/August 2026: First major supply event — up to 20% (or 30% if the stock is up 30%+) of the 4.6B-share 180-day block.
• Aug–Oct 2026: Seven percent tranches every two to four weeks create a steady supply drip.
• Late Oct/Nov 2026: Q3 earnings triggers the single largest single-event release — 28% of the 180-day block (~1.3 billion shares) becomes available.
• Dec 8, 2026: Full 180-day expiry. All remaining non-Musk, non-extended-investor shares free.
• Feb–Aug 2027: Extended investor block releases in stages.
• Jun 12, 2027: Musk's 6.4 billion shares become transferable for the first time.

The implication for price action: the biggest near-term pressure events are Q2 earnings (July/August) and Q3 earnings (October/November). The biggest structural supply event is June 2027 — the quarter when Musk's position first becomes tradeable.

What to Watch

Starship orbital payload delivery (H2 2026). The filing identifies this as the key enabler for next-gen satellite deployment, orbital AI compute, and cost reduction across all three segments. Delays here ripple through every growth assumption in the prospectus.

AI segment capex trajectory. Q1 2026 AI capex of $7.7 billion was the single most important number in the 424B4 for forward-looking analysis. If it continues at that pace, full-year 2026 AI capex could approach $30-35 billion. The question is whether the revenue ramp in Grok Enterprise and Grok Business keeps up.

Connectivity ARPU and subscriber growth. The cash engine. If Starlink's 49.8% revenue growth rate decelerates materially, the funding mechanism for everything else tightens.

The Q2 2026 earnings release. First reported quarter as a public company. Sets the tone for all three segments simultaneously and triggers the first lock-up early release. Expect outsized volatility around that date regardless of results.

June 12, 2027. The date Musk's 6.4 billion shares first become eligible for transfer. No other single event in the post-IPO lock-up calendar has more potential supply impact.

All financial data sourced directly from the SpaceX 424B4 Final Prospectus filed with the SEC on June 12, 2026 (accession number 0001628280-26-042639). All lock-up terms are from the Underwriting section (printed pages 265–272) and Shares Eligible for Future Sale section (printed pages 258–259) of the same filing. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure as defined in the filing.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does the SPCX lock-up expire?

The main 180-day lock-up on SPCX expires December 8, 2026 (180 days after the June 11, 2026 IPO). Shares release in stages: 20% after Q2 2026 earnings (late July/early August), then 7% tranches every two to four weeks from August through October, then the Q3 earnings-triggered release (~28%), with all remaining 180-day shares releasing December 8, 2026. Certain investors have a separate extended schedule running into Q2 2027.

When can Elon Musk sell SpaceX stock?

Musk's approximately 6.4 billion shares are locked for 366 days with zero early release provisions. His shares first become eligible for transfer on June 12, 2027. The 424B4 filing states: "Our founder's shares are not subject to any early release provisions during the lock-up period."

How many Starlink subscribers does SpaceX have?

As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX had approximately 10.3 million Starlink Subscribers across 164 countries, up 105% from 5.0 million a year prior. Starlink generated $11.387 billion in FY2025 revenue — the company's only profitable operating segment.

What is SpaceX's market cap?

At the $135 IPO price with 13.08 billion shares outstanding, the implied market cap was approximately $1.77 trillion. At the day-1 close of $161 (+19.3%), it rose to approximately $2.1 trillion. The live tracker at the top of this article shows the current figure based on real-time SPCX price data.

How much did SpaceX raise in its IPO?

SpaceX raised $75 billion in its June 11, 2026 IPO, selling 555.6 million new Class A shares at $135 per share — the largest IPO in history.

What is the 30% condition on early lock-up release?

A bonus 10% tranche releases alongside the Q2 2026 earnings window only if SPCX closes at least 30% above the $135 IPO price (≥$175.50) on at least 5 of the 10 consecutive trading days ending on the Q2 earnings date. If that threshold isn't met, the 10% rolls into the later time-based tranches instead. This condition does not apply to Elon Musk's shares.

See also: SpaceX S-1 IPO Deep Dive: What the Filing Actually Says