30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate — Historical Chart
MORTGAGE30USThe 30-year fixed mortgage rate directly sets housing affordability. Each 1% rate increase reduces purchasing power by roughly 10%. Above 7% sharply curtails demand — particularly for first-time buyers.
Related — Housing & Real Estate
SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE ECONOMIC DATA (FRED) · 0 OBSERVATIONS
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is the primary determinant of housing affordability in the US. Typically priced 1.5-2.5 percentage points above the 10-year Treasury yield, it surged from 3% in 2021 to over 7% in 2023 — creating the worst housing affordability crisis in decades and effectively freezing the existing home market.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What determines the 30-year mortgage rate?
- The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is primarily driven by the 10-year Treasury yield (the benchmark rate) plus a spread that reflects mortgage-specific risks (prepayment risk, credit risk). The spread over Treasuries typically ranges from 1.5% to 3%, widening during financial stress.
- What is the historical average 30-year mortgage rate?
- The all-time high was 18.5% in October 1981 during the Volcker-era Fed tightening. Rates declined for 40 years to a historic low of 2.65% in January 2021. The long-run historical average is approximately 7-8%.
- How do mortgage rates affect home prices?
- Higher mortgage rates reduce affordability, compress demand, and put downward pressure on prices. However, the "lock-in effect" — homeowners reluctant to sell and give up low-rate mortgages — reduces supply simultaneously, which can support prices even when rates are high.
- What is the relationship between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury?
- Mortgage rates are typically 1.5-2.5% above the 10-year Treasury yield. When the spread is wide (>3%), mortgage rates are unusually high relative to Treasuries — often caused by Fed quantitative tightening (selling mortgage-backed securities) or market stress.
Economic data sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data is updated according to the release schedule of the issuing agency. Provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.