Economic Data Surprises Drive Market Sentiment

Verdict: Today's session hinges on economic data surprises, with notable impacts on futures and sector performance.

Futures & overnight

US index futures are showing a mixed picture this morning. The E-Mini S&P 500 is down slightly by -0.15%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures have declined by -0.40%. The Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is nearly flat, down just -0.002% [1]. In Asia, markets closed mostly higher with the Nikkei 225 up +0.62%, the Hang Seng Index rising +0.56%, and the KOSPI Composite Index gaining +0.97%. However, the S&P/ASX 200 fell by -0.36% [1]. European markets are in positive territory at midday, with the FTSE 100 up +0.10%, the DAX gaining +0.44%, and the CAC 40 rising +0.69% [1]. The VIX is up +1.1%, indicating increased market volatility, while the 10-year yield has risen by +0.45% to 4.659% [1]. Crude oil prices have dropped by -1.99% to $80.72, and gold futures are down -0.55% to $4668.7 [1].

On deck today

Key economic data released this morning includes a significant surprise in Corporate Profits QoQ for Q2, which came in at 8.2% against an estimate of 0.7% [2]. Personal Income MoM for July was reported at 0.4%, doubling the consensus estimate of 0.2% [2]. The PCE Price Index MoM and Core PCE Price Index MoM both met expectations at 0.2% [2]. Durable Goods Orders MoM for July exceeded expectations at 1.1% versus the 0.5% estimate [2]. Later today, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change will be reported, along with a speech from Fed's Barkin [2]. Earnings reports are expected from NVDA, CRWD, and CRM after the market close [3].

Pre-market movers

In pre-market trading, SJM is up +4.42% following its earnings report [4][11]. META has gained +3.68% with no clear catalyst on the tape [4][12]. On the downside, INTU is down -9.88% after Piper Sandler cut its price target by 19% [4][14]. BSX is down -5.44% following a neutral 8-K filing [4][15].

Overnight tape

Significant overnight events include a price target increase for DKS by Morgan Stanley, raising it to $180 from $124, a 45% increase [6]. INTU saw a negative sentiment shift with a price target cut by Piper Sandler [14]. Additionally, MU filed an 8-K regarding a material event [5][7].

What we're watching

Today, the focus is on the economic data surprises, particularly the strong Corporate Profits and Durable Goods Orders, which could influence market sentiment and sector performance. The Technology sector is showing mixed signals with ORCL and KEYS leading gains, while IT and GDDY lag [9]. Market breadth is weak with only 41% of S&P 500 stocks advancing [10].

Data gaps

No data pulls failed or returned nothing.

Our read from the data — not personalized investment advice.

Sources

[1] Global markets — Global indices & futures (FMP); Live market quotes
[2] Economic calendar — Economic calendar · consensus & actuals
[3] Earnings calendar — Earnings calendar
[4] Market movers — Live market quotes
[5] Market pulse — Market event feed; Signal scoreboard · forward-measured
[6] Event tape · analyst_grade, price_target — Market event feed
[7] Event tape · filing_8k, press_release — Market event feed
[8] Event tape · insider_trade, congress_trade, signal_cluster, trend_change — Market event feed
[9] Sector returns — Screener fundamentals · daily
[10] Market breadth — S&P 500 breadth snapshot
[11] Event tape · SJM — Market event feed
[12] Event tape · META — Market event feed
[13] Event tape · MOS — Market event feed
[14] Event tape · INTU — Market event feed
[15] Event tape · BSX — Market event feed
[16] Event tape · WSM — Market event feed