ABR
Earnings in 2 days · May 8, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+1.52%Positive session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 54Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
7.88
Open
7.96
Day Range7.85 – 8.03
7.85
8.03
52W Range7.11 – 12.58
7.11
12.58
16% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
2.5M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
14.3x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.10%
Beta
0.93
Market-like
Performance
1D
+1.52%
5D
+2.96%
1M
+6.67%
3M
+4.30%
6M
-16.41%
YTD
+3.09%
1Y
-21.72%
Best: 1M (+6.67%)Worst: 1Y (-21.72%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +69% YoY · 92% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 14x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
CR 0.1 (low) · FCF $1.90/sh
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.54B
Revenue TTM$1.06B
Net Income TTM$148.80M
Free Cash Flow$372.38M
Gross Margin92.1%
Net Margin14.0%
Operating Margin71.1%
Return on Equity5.0%
Return on Assets1.0%
Debt / Equity3.74
Current Ratio0.10
EPS TTM$0.76
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Bridge loan origination volumes and pipeline visibility - directly impacts future net interest income growth

Credit performance metrics: non-accrual loans, loan loss provisions, and realized losses on the bridge portfolio

Net interest margin trends - spread compression from rising warehouse financing costs versus loan yields

Book value per share changes - mark-to-market adjustments on loan portfolio and equity raises dilute existing shareholders

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Multifamily property values and cash flows are directly tied to employment, wage growth, and household formation rates. Economic weakness reduces property NOI, increases borrower defaults, and compresses property valuations (increasing loan-to-value ratios). Origination volumes collapse during recessions as property transactions freeze and refinancing activity halts. The bridge loan book is particularly exposed to transitional properties with business plans dependent on rent growth and occupancy improvements.

Interest Rates

Extremely high sensitivity with asymmetric impact. Rising rates increase warehouse financing costs immediately (floating rate debt), while loan portfolio yields adjust slower (existing fixed-rate bridge loans). The 2022-2025 rate hiking cycle compressed net interest margins significantly. Higher rates also reduce multifamily property values (cap rate expansion), increasing credit risk on existing loans and reducing refinancing opportunities. Conversely, falling rates would expand margins, improve borrower coverage ratios, and stimulate origination volumes. The company's floating-rate asset base provides some natural hedge, but liability costs typically reprice faster.

Key Risks

Multifamily oversupply in Sun Belt markets (Phoenix, Austin, Dallas) where significant new construction delivered 2023-2025 could pressure rents and property values, increasing loan defaults

Regulatory changes to GSE lending programs (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac caps, underwriting standards) could reduce agency origination volumes and fee income

Secular shift toward single-family rentals and build-to-rent communities competing with traditional multifamily for renters and investor capital

Investor Profile

value/distressed - The 0.5x price-to-book ratio and 46.9% one-year decline suggest deep value investors betting on credit cycle recovery and book value stabilization. High historical dividend yield (though sustainability questioned) attracts income-focused investors willing to accept elevated risk. Recent performance indicates momentum investors have exited. Not suitable for growth investors given negative revenue/earnings trends. Requires high risk tolerance given credit exposure and leverage.

Watch on Earnings
SOFR and Term SOFR rates - directly impacts floating-rate loan yields and warehouse financing costsMultifamily cap rates by market (Green Street, CBRE research) - property value changes affect loan-to-value ratios and credit riskFannie Mae and Freddie Mac multifamily lending volume caps and utilization - constrains agency origination opportunityApartment vacancy rates and effective rent growth (RealPage, Yardi Matrix data) - leading indicators of borrower cash flow stress
Health Radar
1 strong5 concern
24/100
Liquidity
0.10Concern
Leverage
3.74Concern
Coverage
1.1xConcern
ROE
5.0%Concern
ROIC
118.3%Strong
Cash
$483MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE12 analysts
HOLD
+0.0%upside to target
Buy
542%
Hold
433%
Sell
325%
5 Buy (42%)4 Hold (33%)3 Sell (25%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 54 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.10 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentSep 1, 2026
In 118 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

RallyDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 17.7%

+2.2% vs SMA 50 · -15.9% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI54.0
Neutral territory
MACD+0.06
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$12.58+57.3%
EMA 200
$9.26+15.7%
Current
$8.00
EMA 50
$7.89-1.3%
52W Low
$7.11-11.1%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$7.1116th %ile$12.58
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:1
Edge:+2 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)3.5M
Recent Vol (5D)
3.3M-5%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 4 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$702.7M
$652.4M$762.6M
$1.63
±10%
Low2
FY2024
$618.5M
$613.2M$661.2M
-12.0%$1.73+6.1%
±2%
Moderate4
FY2025
$503.3M
$500.1M$507.7M
-18.6%$0.90-47.8%
±5%
Moderate4
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 4 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryABR
Last 8Q
+10.6%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quartersMissed 1 Estimates falling
+7%
Q2'24
+2%
Q3'24
+10%
Q4'24
-7%
Q1'25
+3%
Q2'25
+9%
Q3'25
+51%
Q4'25
+9%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
WedbushMarket Perform → Neutral
Apr 15
DOWNGRADE
Zacks Investment Re…Hold
Apr 26
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
6 Buys/0 SellsNet Buying
Tsunis GeorgeDir
$15K
Mar 17
BUY
Green William CDir
$115K
Nov 28
BUY
Friedman David ErwinCCO & Head of …
$21K
Nov 17
BUY
Lazar Melvin FDir
$41K
Nov 17
BUY
Kaufman IvanDir
$242K
Nov 17
BUY
Kaufman IvanDir
$228K
Nov 13
BUY
Financials
Dividends15.00% yield
3 yrs of payments
Annual Yield15.00%
Semi-Annual Div.$0.3000
Est. Annual / Share$0.60
FrequencySemi-Annual
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
951K
2
Nuveen, LLC
392K
3
GraniteShares Advisors LLC
312K
4
COMMONWEALTH EQUITY SERVICES, LLC
287K
5
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
244K
6
Significant Wealth Partners LLC
226K
7
PFG Investments, LLC
219K
8
Concurrent Investment Advisors, LLC
195K
News & Activity

ABR News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

about us for over 20 years, uniondale, ny-based arbor realty trust, inc. (nyse: abr) has been helping multifamily and commercial real estate clients achieve their financial goals by focusing on growing long-term relationships and conducting business as not simply another real estate lender, but a partner. we value our clients to such an extent that we’re more comfortable calling them partners, and their relationships with arbor are the foundation of our business. founded by chairman and ceo ivan kaufman, arbor realty trust, inc. is a real estate investment trust and direct lender specializing in loan origination and servicing for multifamily, seniors housing, healthcare and other diverse commercial real estate assets. arbor is a top 10 fannie mae dus® multifamily lender by volume and a top fannie mae small loan lender, a freddie mac program plus® seller/servicer and the top freddie mac small balance loan lender, a fannie mae and freddie mac seniors housing lender, an fha multifamily ac

Industry
Mortgage and Nonmortgage Loan Brokers
CEO
Ivan Kaufman
Yoni GoodmanCOO & Executive VP
Dennis van der ReisExecutive Vice President of Servicing & Asset Management
Maysa VahidiExecutive Vice President & General Counsel
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
ABR
$8.00+1.52%$1.5B10.5+9297.8%1228.7%1500
$309.40+0.57%$834.5B14.6+330.7%2039.3%1505
$322.03-1.47%$617.3B27.7+1134.0%5014.5%1499
$497.08-1.52%$440.0B28.4+1641.6%4564.7%1489
$53.12+1.78%$377.0B12.2-45.1%1592.6%1503
$189.25+0.64%$300.4B16.3+1147.7%1466.4%1518
$918.89+1.73%$272.7B15.5-138.4%1373.0%1516
Sector avg+0.46%17.9+1909.8%2468.5%1504