Data is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
9/27/26
Addus HomeCare (ADUS)
Sunday
4:26 PM
ThesisAddus HomeCare: the story is balanced — State Medicaid rate increases: annual rate adjustments (typically 2-4%) directly impact revenue per billable hour across…
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $1.5B — +7.1% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
01State Medicaid rate increases: annual rate adjustments (typically 2-4%) directly impact revenue per billable hour across 70% of the business
02Same-store census growth: organic growth in clients served within existing contracts, driven by aging demographics and hospital discharge trends
03Caregiver wage inflation and retention: labor costs represent 60-65% of revenue, with wage pressures from minimum wage increases and competitive labor markets
04M&A activity: the company has historically grown through tuck-in acquisitions of regional home care providers at 5-7x EBITDA multiples
05Medicare Advantage penetration: growth in MA plans (now 50% of Medicare beneficiaries) drives higher-margin home health referrals
06Personal care services (~75% of revenue): non-medical assistance with activities of daily living, primarily Medicaid-funded
07Home health services (~15% of revenue): skilled nursing and therapy services, Medicare and Medicare Advantage reimbursed
08Hospice services (~10% of revenue): end-of-life care, Medicare hospice benefit reimbursed
growth - The stock attracts investors seeking exposure to demographic tailwinds (aging population, 10…
Rising interest rates have moderate negative impact through two channels: (1) higher borrowing costs on the company's revolving credit…
Watch on earnings: State Medicaid rate increase announcements in Illinois, New Mexico, New York (key states), National caregiver wage inflation trends and minimum wage legislation, Medicare Advantage enrollment growth rate (currently 31M beneficiaries, growing 8-10% annually).
One Sentence Summary:
Addus HomeCare: the story is balanced — state medicaid rate increases: annual rate adjustments (typically 2-4%) directly impact revenue per billable hour across 70% of the business.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
