Technology risk that FMCW LiDAR fails to achieve cost or performance advantages over incumbent time-of-flight systems, or that camera/radar sensor fusion renders LiDAR unnecessary for ADAS Level 2+/3
Automotive industry shift toward lower-cost Chinese LiDAR suppliers (Hesai at $200-300 per unit) compressing pricing before Aeva achieves production scale
Regulatory delays in autonomous vehicle deployment reducing OEM urgency to deploy LiDAR systems, extending Aeva's path to profitability beyond cash runway
Established LiDAR competitors (Luminar, Innoviz, Valeo) securing exclusive multi-year production contracts with major OEMs, limiting Aeva's addressable market
Automotive OEMs developing in-house LiDAR capabilities or acquiring LiDAR startups, reducing third-party supplier opportunities
Chinese competitors (Hesai, RoboSense, Livox) achieving automotive-grade qualification at significantly lower price points, forcing margin compression industry-wide
Cash runway risk with $100M annual burn rate and approximately $300-400M cash balance (estimated), requiring equity raises within 12-18 months absent revenue inflection
Equity dilution risk from future financing rounds at depressed valuations if technology milestones are missed or automotive production contracts delayed
Working capital requirements increasing sharply if production ramps begin, requiring additional capital before positive cash flow generation
StructuralCompetitiveBalance Sheet