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★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $3.7B — +7.9% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Combined ratio performance - underwriting profitability measured as (losses + expenses) / premiums, with sub-95% targets driving valuation
2Catastrophe loss experience - major hurricanes, earthquakes, or wildfires impacting quarterly results and reserve adequacy
3Premium rate changes - year-over-year pricing trends in specialty lines indicating hard vs soft market dynamics
4Reserve development - prior year loss reserve releases or strengthening affecting reported earnings quality
5Investment portfolio yield and duration - fixed income returns on $8-10B investment portfolio sensitive to interest rate environment
6Return on equity trajectory - ability to generate 13-15%+ ROE through cycle determining valuation premium to book value
7Insurance segment gross written premiums (~60% of total) - specialty commercial lines including marine & energy, aviation, casualty, property, and professional lines
8Reinsurance segment gross written premiums (~40% of total) - treaty and facultative reinsurance across property catastrophe, casualty, specialty, and credit & surety
value - Stock trades near 1.0x book value despite mid-teens ROE potential, attracting value investors seeking rerating as underwriting…
Rising interest rates are significantly positive for Aspen's business model.
Watch on earnings: 10-Year Treasury yield (GS10) - primary driver of investment income and discount rates for loss reserves, High yield credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2) - indicator of credit stress affecting investment portfolio valuations and casualty loss frequency, Brent crude oil price (DCOILBRENTEU) - proxy for energy sector activity driving marine, energy, and offshore insurance demand.
One Sentence Summary:
Aspen Insurance: the story is balanced — combined ratio performance - underwriting profitability measured as (losses + expenses) / premiums, with sub-95% targets driving valuation.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.