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★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $63.9B — +4.4% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Combined ratio performance - particularly auto insurance loss ratios which have been volatile post-pandemic due to inflation in repair costs and used vehicle prices
2Catastrophe losses - hurricane, wildfire, and severe convective storm losses relative to reinsurance coverage and reserve adequacy
3Premium rate increases and retention rates - ability to push through rate while maintaining policy count amid competitive pressures from Progressive, GEICO, State Farm
4Investment portfolio yield - mark-to-market impacts from interest rate movements on $60B+ fixed-income portfolio and realized investment income
5Share repurchase activity - company has been aggressive buyer with $8.7B FCF supporting capital returns
6Auto insurance premiums (~65-70% of total premiums) - personal auto coverage across liability, collision, comprehensive
7Homeowners insurance premiums (~20-25% of total) - property coverage including catastrophe exposure
8Protection Services and other lines (~5-10%) - roadside assistance, identity protection, commercial lines
value - Stock trades at 0.8x P/S and 2.0x P/B despite 43% ROE and 166% FCF yield…
Rising rates are positive for investment income on the $60B+ fixed-income portfolio…
Watch on earnings: Monthly auto insurance rate filings by state - leading indicator of pricing power and competitive dynamics, Catastrophe loss estimates from major events - PCS catastrophe designations and industry loss estimates, Used vehicle prices (Manheim Index) - directly impacts auto physical damage claim severity.
One Sentence Summary:
Allstate: the story is balanced — combined ratio performance - particularly auto insurance loss ratios which have been volatile post-pandemic due to inflation in repair costs.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.