Net interest margin trajectory: spread between auto loan yields (currently 7.5-8.5%) and deposit costs (3.8-4.2%), highly sensitive to Fed policy and competitive deposit pricing

Credit performance metrics: net charge-off rates on auto loans (currently 1.4-1.8% vs. 1.0% pre-pandemic normalized), delinquency trends in 60+ day buckets, and provision expense relative to loan growth

Auto loan origination volumes: quarterly originations of $10-13B, mix shift between new/used vehicles (used carries higher yields but higher losses), and retail market share in 8-10% range

Deposit growth and retention: ability to maintain $150B+ deposit base without excessive rate competition, customer acquisition costs for digital accounts, and deposit beta relative to Fed funds rate changes

Electric vehicle transition disrupting residual value assumptions: EVs comprise 8-10% of new vehicle sales with uncertain long-term depreciation curves, potentially increasing loss severity on leases and loans if battery degradation or technological obsolescence accelerates faster than ICE vehicles

Regulatory capital requirements and stress testing: As a bank holding company with $180B+ assets, Ally faces annual CCAR/DFAST stress tests that can constrain capital returns. Proposed Basel III endgame rules could increase risk-weighted assets by 15-20%, requiring additional capital retention

Digital banking competition eroding deposit franchise: Fintechs and megabanks offering 4.5-5.0% savings rates force Ally to match pricing to retain deposits, compressing funding advantage that historically differentiated the business model from non-bank auto lenders