ARI
+0.91%(+0.10)
Open
10.94
Prev Close
10.94
Day High
11.05
Day Low
10.87
Volume
1.6M
Avg Volume
1.4M
52W High
11.24
52W Low
9.30
Signal
Leaning Bullish1
Price
1
Move+0.91%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume1.1× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 56Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
10.94
Open
10.94
Day Range10.87 – 11.05
10.87
11.05
52W Range9.30 – 11.24
9.30
11.24
90% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.4M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
13.6x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.12%
Beta
1.12
Market-like
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +7% YoY
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 14x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
FCF $0.20/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.47B
Revenue TTM$709.18M
Net Income TTM$126.96M
Free Cash Flow$27.59M
Gross Margin
Net Margin
Operating Margin
Return on Equity6.9%
Return on Assets
Debt / Equity4.50
Current Ratio0.03
EPS TTM$0.91
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Net interest margin compression or expansion driven by spread between loan yields and funding costs

Credit quality signals including non-accrual loans, loan loss provisions, and realized losses on portfolio

Loan origination volume and deployment of capital into new investments versus portfolio runoff

Dividend coverage ratio and sustainability of quarterly distributions relative to distributable earnings

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Commercial real estate fundamentals are highly cyclical, with property values, occupancy rates, and rental income directly tied to economic growth. Recession scenarios increase default risk as borrowers face cash flow stress, property values decline, and refinancing becomes difficult. Office sector exposure (estimated 30-40% of portfolio) faces structural headwinds from hybrid work trends. Multifamily and industrial properties show more resilience but remain sensitive to employment and consumer spending cycles.

Interest Rates

Rising rates create a complex dynamic: (1) Funding costs increase on floating-rate repo facilities, compressing net interest margin in the near term; (2) New loan originations reprice higher, eventually improving portfolio yields; (3) Higher rates reduce commercial property values, increasing loan-to-value ratios and credit risk on existing portfolio; (4) REIT valuation multiples contract as Treasury yields rise, making dividend yields less attractive on a relative basis. The company's floating-rate loan book (estimated 60-70% of portfolio) provides some natural hedge, but timing mismatches create earnings volatility.

Key Risks

Secular decline in office property demand due to remote work adoption, with Class B/C office assets facing potential obsolescence and significant value impairment

Regulatory changes to REIT taxation or capital requirements that could reduce distributable income or force deleveraging

Disintermediation risk from banks returning to aggressive CRE lending as credit conditions normalize, compressing origination spreads

Investor Profile

dividend - The 0.8x price-to-book ratio and 9.6% FCF yield attract income-focused investors seeking high current yield, though dividend sustainability concerns and credit risk exposure limit appeal to conservative income investors. Value investors may see opportunity in the discount to book value if they believe loan portfolio marks are conservative. Not suitable for growth investors given 1.3% revenue growth and capital-intensive business model requiring continuous dividend payouts.

Watch on Earnings
SOFR and Term SOFR rates as primary funding cost benchmark for repo facilitiesCommercial real estate transaction volumes and cap rates across office, multifamily, and hospitality sectorsHigh-yield credit spreads (OAS) as leading indicator of credit stress and funding cost volatilityCMBS delinquency rates and distressed loan volumes as proxy for broader CRE credit quality
Health Radar
3 concern
7/100
Leverage
4.50Concern
ROIC
4.0%Concern
Cash
N/AConcern
Analyst Coverage

No analyst coverage available for this stock.

Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 3 signals bullish
5/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 56 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowNeutral
~
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates

2 signals unavailable — limited data for this stock

Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 4.8%

+3.0% vs SMA 50 · +7.9% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI56.2
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.09
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$11.24+1.8%
Current
$11.04
EMA 50
$10.71-3.0%
EMA 200
$10.27-7.0%
52W Low
$9.30-15.8%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$9.3090th %ile$11.24
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:5
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.2M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.1M-7%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts
Earnings HistoryARI
Last 8Q
+6.9%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 3
+3%
Q3'24
+24%
Q4'24
+39%
Q1'25
-4%
Q2'25
Q3'25
+21%
Q4'25
-4%
Q1'26
-24%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Financials
Dividends9.06% yield
Annual Yield9.06%
Quarterly Div.
Est. Annual / Share
FrequencyQuarterly
News & Activity

ARI News

Unable to load news

About

apollo commercial real estate finance, inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (reit) that primarily originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the united states. it is qualified as a reit under the internal revenue code. as a reit, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its reit taxable income to its stockholders. apollo commercial real estate finance, inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in new york, new york.

Industry
Mortgage and Nonmortgage Loan Brokers
CEO
Stuart Rothstein
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
ARI
$11.04+0.00%$1.5B1500
$312.47-0.24%$842.7B14.8+330.7%2039.3%1502
$328.03-0.55%$628.8B28.2+1134.0%5014.5%1498
$495.46-1.48%$438.6B28.4+1641.6%4564.7%1488
$53.24-0.41%$382.1B12.2-45.1%1592.6%1501
$190.18-0.22%$302.0B16.4+1147.7%1466.4%1516
$923.71-0.01%$274.1B15.5-138.4%1373.0%1515
Sector avg-0.42%19.3+678.4%2675.1%1503