ASO
Next earnings: Jun 9, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-1.02%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume1.2× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 35Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
51.07
Open
50.30
Day Range49.60 – 50.75
49.60
50.75
52W Range39.87 – 62.45
39.87
62.45
47% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.5M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
9.1x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.00%
Beta
1.59
High vol
Performance
1D
-1.02%
5D
-5.05%
1M
-14.45%
3M
-13.68%
6M
+13.04%
YTD
+1.18%
1Y
+11.12%
Best: 6M (+13.04%)Worst: 1M (-14.45%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +2% YoY
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 9x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.9 · FCF $3.36/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$3.26B
Revenue TTM$6.05B
Net Income TTM$376.77M
Free Cash Flow$221.97M
Gross Margin34.8%
Net Margin6.2%
Operating Margin8.5%
Return on Equity18.1%
Return on Assets7.1%
Debt / Equity0.65
Current Ratio1.89
EPS TTM$5.70
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Comparable store sales trends - critical given mature store base and limited new unit growth

Gross margin performance driven by promotional intensity, private label mix, and inventory management

Market share gains/losses in key categories (hunting, fishing, outdoor) versus Dick's Sporting Goods, Bass Pro Shops, and Walmart

Capital allocation decisions - ASO has been aggressive with share buybacks given strong FCF generation and low valuation multiples

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Sporting goods retail is highly discretionary and sensitive to consumer confidence and disposable income. The -3.7% revenue decline and -19.4% net income decline reflect normalization from pandemic-driven outdoor recreation demand. Southern/Southeastern demographic exposure provides some insulation given population growth and lower cost of living, but big-ticket items (kayaks, grills, firearms) are deferred in economic uncertainty. Hunting and fishing categories show more resilience than team sports equipment during downturns.

Interest Rates

Moderate sensitivity through multiple channels. Higher rates pressure consumer financing for big-ticket purchases (boats, ATVs, premium grills) and reduce discretionary spending capacity as mortgage/auto payments rise. The company's 0.65x debt/equity ratio is manageable, limiting direct financing cost pressure. However, higher rates compress valuation multiples for specialty retail (currently 7.8x EV/EBITDA), particularly impacting stocks trading on FCF yield (8.3% current yield becomes less attractive as risk-free rates rise).

Key Risks

E-commerce disruption from Amazon and direct-to-consumer brands (Yeti, Traeger) bypassing traditional retail channels, though experiential categories like hunting/fishing show more retail resilience

Secular decline in youth team sports participation and shift toward individual fitness activities, impacting traditional team sports equipment sales

Firearms and ammunition sales volatility driven by political cycles and regulatory uncertainty - a meaningful category for Academy

Investor Profile

value - The stock trades at 0.7x P/S and 7.8x EV/EBITDA with 8.3% FCF yield, attracting value investors seeking cyclical recovery and capital return. The 39.6% three-month return suggests momentum investors are also participating on signs of stabilization. Not a dividend stock (company prioritizes buybacks). Growth investors avoid given -3.7% revenue decline and mature store base with limited expansion opportunity.

Watch on Earnings
US retail sales excluding autos (RSXFS) as leading indicator for discretionary spendingConsumer sentiment index (UMCSENT) - correlates strongly with big-ticket sporting goods purchasesGasoline prices (GASPRICE) - impacts discretionary spending capacity and travel to outdoor recreation destinationsUnemployment rate (UNRATE) - Southern/Southeastern labor markets drive local consumer health
Health Radar
3 strong2 watch1 concern
59/100
Liquidity
1.89Watch
Leverage
0.65Strong
Coverage
14.1xStrong
ROE
18.1%Strong
ROIC
9.0%Watch
Cash
$330MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE21 analysts
BUY
+16.7%upside to target
L $54.00
Med $59.00consensus
H $78.00
Buy
1152%
Hold
1048%
11 Buy (52%)10 Hold (48%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 35 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.89 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 28, 2026
In 104 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 6.8%

-10.3% vs SMA 50 · -4.2% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI35.0
Momentum fading
MACD-1.45
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$62.45+23.5%
EMA 50
$54.94+8.7%
EMA 200
$52.07+3.0%
Current
$50.55
52W Low
$39.87-21.1%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$39.8747th %ile$62.45
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:0
Dist days:2
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.5M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.5M+0%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 14 analysts
Analyst revisions:Revenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$5.9B
$5.9B$6.0B
$5.91
±1%
High14
FY2026(current)
$6.1B
$6.1B$6.1B
+2.7%$5.88-0.5%
±2%
High11
FY2027
$6.3B
$6.3B$6.3B
+3.5%$6.30+7.1%
±2%
High12
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryASO
Last 8Q
-5.6%avg beat
Beat 2 of 8 quartersMissed 5 Estimates falling
-11%
Q2'24
Q3'24
-25%
Q4'24
+8%
Q1'25
-12%
Q2'25
-8%
Q3'25
+8%
Q4'25
-3%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
CitigroupBuy → Neutral
Sep 3
DOWNGRADE
Cowen & Co.Buy → Hold
Aug 13
DOWNGRADE
UBSBuy → Neutral
Jun 12
DOWNGRADE
UBSBuy → Positive
Jun 12
DOWNGRADE
Wells FargoOverweight → Equal-Weight
Jun 11
DOWNGRADE
Zacks Investment Re…Buy
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/4 SellsNet Selling
Tweedy Jeffrey C.Dir
$240K
Apr 16
SELL
Marley Brian TDir
$837K
Dec 12
SELL
Marley Brian TDir
$107K
Dec 12
SELL
Marley Brian TDir
$193K
Dec 15
SELL
Financials
Dividends1.07% yield
+19.4% avg annual growth
Annual Yield1.07%
Quarterly Div.$0.1500
Est. Annual / Share$0.60
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
9.8M
2
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
4.0M
3
LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT
3.0M
4
KING LUTHER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CORP
1.6M
5
ROYCE & ASSOCIATES LP
1.0M
6
Stephens Investment Management Group LLC
1.0M
7
Allianz Asset Management GmbH
861K
8
Invesco Ltd.
776K
News & Activity

ASO News

19 articles · 4h ago

About

Academy is a leading full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer in the United States. Originally founded in 1938 as a family business in Texas, Academy has grown to 259 stores across 16 contiguous states. Academy's mission is to provide 'Fun for All' and Academy fulfills this mission with a localized merchandising strategy and value proposition that strongly connects with a broad range of consumers. Academy's product assortment focuses on key categories of outdoor, apparel, footwear and sports & recreation through both leading national brands and a portfolio of 17 private label brands, which go well beyond traditional sporting goods and apparel offerings.

Industry
Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores
Sumit AnandExecutive Vice President & Chief Information Officer
William S. EnnisExecutive Vice President & Chief Administrative Officer
Brandy L. TreadwayExecutive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary
PeersConsumer Cyclical(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
ASO
$50.55-1.02%$3.3B8.9+202.2%622.4%1500
$264.14-1.15%$2.8T31.3+1237.8%1083.4%1521
$422.24-4.75%$1.6T352.3-293.1%400.1%1507
$297.51-2.25%$296.3B20.9+324.0%859.6%1477
$276.39+0.52%$196.4B22.6+372.3%3185.0%1478
$147.43+0.05%$163.2B30.2+711.9%910.0%1494
$218.42-2.32%$122.3B18.3+312.2%771.2%1489
Sector avg-1.56%69.2+409.6%1118.8%1495