Net customer additions and churn rates - ability to grow SMB client base in competitive market
Average revenue per user (ARPU) trends - upselling additional modules (benefits administration, HR compliance tools) to existing payroll customers
Operating margin trajectory - path to profitability given current negative margins
M&A activity - consolidation in fragmented HCM market or potential acquisition by larger platform
moderate-high - SMB clients are economically sensitive, with higher failure rates and payroll freezes during recessions. Client headcount directly drives PEPM revenue, so employment trends at small businesses create cyclical revenue pressure. However, payroll processing is mission-critical and sticky, providing some downside protection. New business formation rates correlate with economic expansion, affecting customer acquisition velocity.
Interest rates have dual impact: (1) Rising rates increase float income on payroll funds held temporarily, providing modest revenue tailwind (estimated 5-10% of revenue); (2) Higher rates compress valuation multiples for unprofitable SaaS companies, as investors discount future cash flows more heavily. At current negative profitability, valuation compression likely dominates the float income benefit. Additionally, higher rates may pressure SMB clients' financing costs, indirectly affecting their ability to maintain headcount.
Market consolidation by dominant players (ADP, Paychex, Intuit) with superior scale, brand recognition, and integrated ecosystems - limits pricing power and market share gains
Regulatory complexity in payroll tax compliance across federal, state, and local jurisdictions requires continuous investment, creating barriers to margin expansion for smaller players
Shift toward integrated ERP platforms (NetSuite, Workday) that bundle HCM functionality may reduce demand for standalone SMB payroll solutions
value/turnaround - The stock trades at 1.6x sales with negative profitability, attracting investors betting on operational improvement, margin expansion, or M&A. Not suitable for growth investors given 0.6% revenue growth. High-risk profile given execution challenges and competitive pressures. Potential appeal to special situations investors if management can demonstrate path to profitability or becomes acquisition target for larger HCM platform seeking SMB market share.
Trend
+1.9% vs SMA 50 · +18.5% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $119.8M $119.5M–$119.9M | — | $0.62 | — | ±1% | High6 |
FY2025 | $140.0M $139.4M–$140.4M | ▲ +16.9% | $0.66 | ▲ +6.3% | ±2% | High6 |
FY2026(current) | $160.8M $160.2M–$161.2M | ▲ +14.8% | $0.85 | ▲ +27.7% | ±8% | High7 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
ASUR News
About
Asure sees Human Capital Management (HCM) through the lens of entrepreneurs and executives with an owner's mentality. Asure helps more than 60,000 small and mid-sized businesses develop their 'Human Capital' to get to the next level, stay compliant, and allocate their time, money and technology toward growth. Asure HCM solution includes Asure Payroll & Tax, Asure HR, and Asure Time & Attendance. Asure HRServices offers ranges from online compliance tools to a fully outsourced HR department.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ASUR◀ | $8.53 | -0.58% | $245M | — | +1732.1% | — | 1500 |
| $888.31 | +0.00% | $409.2B | — | — | — | 1526 | |
| $281.53 | -3.43% | $294.2B | — | — | — | 1488 | |
| $171.18 | +0.00% | $230.5B | — | — | — | 1486 | |
| $220.49 | +0.00% | $173.8B | — | — | — | 1502 | |
| $270.56 | +0.45% | $160.6B | 22.2 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1506 | |
| $399.44 | +0.00% | $155.1B | — | — | — | 1506 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.51% | — | 22.2 | +919.7% | 2912.3% | 1502 |