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Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth rate and net revenue retention (NRR) - cloud platform stickiness
New logo wins with large agencies (NYPD, LAPD-scale departments) and international expansion milestones
TASER 10 adoption rates and upgrade cycle penetration across installed base
Gross margin expansion trajectory as cloud mix increases and hardware costs decline
moderate - Revenue is 90%+ government-sourced (state/local law enforcement, federal agencies), making it relatively insulated from consumer cycles but sensitive to municipal budget health. Economic downturns can pressure state/local tax revenues, delaying procurement cycles or forcing agencies to extend existing contracts. However, mission-critical nature and federal funding programs (COPS grants, 1033 program) provide countercyclical support. Federal contracts (15-20% of revenue) are more stable but subject to appropriations cycles.
moderate - Higher rates pressure state/local government borrowing costs for capital equipment purchases, potentially extending sales cycles for large deployments. Axon's shift to subscription bundles mitigates this by converting upfront capex to opex budgets. Rising rates compress valuation multiples for high-growth SaaS companies (currently trading at 13.3x sales vs. 20x+ historical peaks). Company carries $400M+ debt at variable rates, increasing interest expense in rising rate environments, though strong FCF generation ($300M+ annually) limits refinancing risk.
Regulatory/political risk from police reform movements - potential restrictions on TASER use, body camera mandates being reversed, or defund-the-police budget cuts reducing procurement
Technological disruption from AI-native competitors or open-source evidence management platforms challenging Axon's software moat
Privacy and civil liberties litigation over facial recognition, automated surveillance, and data retention policies creating compliance costs or product restrictions
growth - Investors are paying for 30%+ revenue growth, SaaS margin expansion story, and TAM expansion into adjacent markets (drones, virtual reality training, real-time operations). Stock trades on forward revenue multiples (13.3x sales) rather than earnings, attracting momentum and growth-at-reasonable-price (GARP) investors. Recent 44% drawdown has brought in value-oriented growth investors betting on margin inflection. Not a dividend stock (no payout) and minimal buyback activity.
Trend
-24.9% vs SMA 50 · -41.2% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $1.8B $1.7B–$1.9B | — | $3.87 | — | ±5% | High9 |
FY2024 | $2.1B $2.1B–$2.1B | ▲ +14.6% | $5.14 | ▲ +33.1% | ±5% | High11 |
FY2025 | $2.7B $2.6B–$2.9B | ▲ +32.0% | $6.31 | ▲ +22.7% | ±6% | High13 |
NEW YORK, May 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Why: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, announ…

founded in 1993, axon (formerly taser international) has been at the forefront of innovation in public safety technology. our earliest conducted electrical weapons (cews) represented a revolution in less-lethal weaponry, providing officers a safer option to more traditional types of force. more recently, our suite of connected products from body cameras to evidence management, has given police agencies the flexibility and the versatility to operate with increased transparency and efficiency. today, our cews are in use in more than 18,000 agencies globally and our other axon family of products are in use by more than 5,000 agencies. our scottsdale, seattle, london, amsterdam, new york city, sydney, ho chi minh city, and tampere teams approach their work with a spirit of collaborative innovation, developing new products and services with the knowledge that they are helping to usher in the future of policing. learn about career opportunities here https://www.axon.com/company/careers
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AXON◀ | $380.60 | -3.34% | $30.7B | 245.0 | +3346.9% | 449.4% | 1483 |
| $904.59 | -1.67% | $420.9B | 44.5 | +429.0% | 1312.8% | 1523 | |
| $286.68 | +2.20% | $299.5B | 34.4 | +1848.2% | 1898.2% | 1489 | |
| $172.87 | -0.02% | $232.8B | 32.1 | +974.1% | 759.8% | 1487 | |
| $224.38 | +1.39% | $176.9B | 81.0 | +3449.4% | 249.7% | 1503 | |
| $410.86 | -2.74% | $159.4B | 40.0 | +1033.0% | 1489.7% | 1507 | |
| $264.01 | +0.23% | $156.7B | 21.7 | +107.2% | 2912.3% | 1506 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.57% | — | 71.2 | +1598.3% | 1296.0% | 1500 |