AXON
Signal
Leaning Bearish12
Price
1
Move-3.34%Selling pressure
Volume
1
Volume1.6× avgHeavy volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 44Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
393.75
Open
396.10
Day Range370.45 – 396.84
370.45
396.84
52W Range339.01 – 885.92
339.01
885.92
8% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
956.6K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
253.7x
Premium valuation
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.37
Market-like
Performance
1D
-3.34%
5D
-4.83%
1M
-7.86%
3M
-4.77%
6M
-40.49%
YTD
-32.98%
1Y
-38.75%
Worst: 6M (-40.49%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +33% YoY · 60% gross margin
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 254x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 2.5 · FCF $0.93/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$30.67B
Revenue TTM$2.78B
Net Income TTM$124.91M
Free Cash Flow$75.08M
Gross Margin59.7%
Net Margin4.5%
Operating Margin0.0%
Return on Equity4.3%
Return on Assets1.8%
Debt / Equity0.59
Current Ratio2.53
EPS TTM$1.55
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth rate and net revenue retention (NRR) - cloud platform stickiness

New logo wins with large agencies (NYPD, LAPD-scale departments) and international expansion milestones

TASER 10 adoption rates and upgrade cycle penetration across installed base

Gross margin expansion trajectory as cloud mix increases and hardware costs decline

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - Revenue is 90%+ government-sourced (state/local law enforcement, federal agencies), making it relatively insulated from consumer cycles but sensitive to municipal budget health. Economic downturns can pressure state/local tax revenues, delaying procurement cycles or forcing agencies to extend existing contracts. However, mission-critical nature and federal funding programs (COPS grants, 1033 program) provide countercyclical support. Federal contracts (15-20% of revenue) are more stable but subject to appropriations cycles.

Interest Rates

moderate - Higher rates pressure state/local government borrowing costs for capital equipment purchases, potentially extending sales cycles for large deployments. Axon's shift to subscription bundles mitigates this by converting upfront capex to opex budgets. Rising rates compress valuation multiples for high-growth SaaS companies (currently trading at 13.3x sales vs. 20x+ historical peaks). Company carries $400M+ debt at variable rates, increasing interest expense in rising rate environments, though strong FCF generation ($300M+ annually) limits refinancing risk.

Key Risks

Regulatory/political risk from police reform movements - potential restrictions on TASER use, body camera mandates being reversed, or defund-the-police budget cuts reducing procurement

Technological disruption from AI-native competitors or open-source evidence management platforms challenging Axon's software moat

Privacy and civil liberties litigation over facial recognition, automated surveillance, and data retention policies creating compliance costs or product restrictions

Investor Profile

growth - Investors are paying for 30%+ revenue growth, SaaS margin expansion story, and TAM expansion into adjacent markets (drones, virtual reality training, real-time operations). Stock trades on forward revenue multiples (13.3x sales) rather than earnings, attracting momentum and growth-at-reasonable-price (GARP) investors. Recent 44% drawdown has brought in value-oriented growth investors betting on margin inflection. Not a dividend stock (no payout) and minimal buyback activity.

Watch on Earnings
Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and quarterly sequential growthCloud & Services revenue growth rate (target 35-40% annually)Gross margin by segment and overall trajectory toward 65%+Future contracted revenue (backlog) as leading indicator
Health Radar
2 strong1 watch3 concern
39/100
Liquidity
2.53Strong
Leverage
0.59Strong
Coverage
0.0xConcern
ROE
4.3%Concern
ROIC
0.0%Concern
Cash
$1.2BWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE20 analysts
BUY
+93.1%upside to target
L $625.00
Med $735.00consensus
H $820.00
Buy
1785%
Hold
315%
17 Buy (85%)3 Hold (15%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
5/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 44 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 2.53 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 31, 2026
In 117 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 21.7%

-24.9% vs SMA 50 · -41.2% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI44.1
Momentum fading
MACD-14.17
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$885.9+132.8%
EMA 200
$614.7+61.5%
EMA 50
$513.4+34.9%
Current
$380.6
52W Low
$339.0-10.9%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$339.08th %ile$885.9
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:2
Dist days:5
Edge:+3 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)593K
Recent Vol (5D)
749K+26%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 13 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$1.8B
$1.7B$1.9B
$3.87
±5%
High9
FY2024
$2.1B
$2.1B$2.1B
+14.6%$5.14+33.1%
±5%
High11
FY2025
$2.7B
$2.6B$2.9B
+32.0%$6.31+22.7%
±6%
High13
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryAXON
Last 8Q
+22.6%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quartersMissed 1 Estimates rising
+22%
Q2'24
+18%
Q3'24
+21%
Q4'24
+52%
Q1'25
+11%
Q2'25
+46%
Q3'25
-23%
Q4'25
+34%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Craig-HallumCautious → Buy
Aug 5
UPGRADE
Craig-HallumBuy → Cautious
Mar 10
DOWNGRADE
J.P. MorganOverweight
Mar 17
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Williams JeriDir
$77K
Mar 17
SELL
Nardini ErikaDir
$100K
Mar 17
SELL
Isner JoshuaPRESIDENT
$3.9M
Mar 10
SELL
Isner JoshuaPRESIDENT
$1.2M
Mar 10
SELL
Isner JoshuaPRESIDENT
$1.9M
Mar 10
SELL
Isner JoshuaPRESIDENT
$2.8M
Mar 10
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Nuveen, LLC
561K
2
ZEVENBERGEN CAPITAL INVESTMENTS LLC
288K
3
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc.
177K
4
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
147K
5
Resona Asset Management Co.,Ltd.
137K
6
ProShare Advisors LLC
113K
7
Stephens Investment Management Group LLC
103K
8
Swedbank AB
100K
News & Activity

AXON News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

founded in 1993, axon (formerly taser international) has been at the forefront of innovation in public safety technology. our earliest conducted electrical weapons (cews) represented a revolution in less-lethal weaponry, providing officers a safer option to more traditional types of force. more recently, our suite of connected products from body cameras to evidence management, has given police agencies the flexibility and the versatility to operate with increased transparency and efficiency. today, our cews are in use in more than 18,000 agencies globally and our other axon family of products are in use by more than 5,000 agencies. our scottsdale, seattle, london, amsterdam, new york city, sydney, ho chi minh city, and tampere teams approach their work with a spirit of collaborative innovation, developing new products and services with the knowledge that they are helping to usher in the future of policing. learn about career opportunities here https://www.axon.com/company/careers

CEO
Patrick Smith
Abigail StockExecutive Vice President of Marketing & Communications
Joshua IsnerPresident
Elizabeth HartExecutive Vice President of People Operations
PeersIndustrials(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
AXON
$380.60-3.34%$30.7B245.0+3346.9%449.4%1483
$904.59-1.67%$420.9B44.5+429.0%1312.8%1523
$286.68+2.20%$299.5B34.4+1848.2%1898.2%1489
$172.87-0.02%$232.8B32.1+974.1%759.8%1487
$224.38+1.39%$176.9B81.0+3449.4%249.7%1503
$410.86-2.74%$159.4B40.0+1033.0%1489.7%1507
$264.01+0.23%$156.7B21.7+107.2%2912.3%1506
Sector avg-0.57%71.2+1598.3%1296.0%1500