AXR
Next earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move+3.49%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume0.9× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 42Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
24.34
Open
24.32
Day Range24.32 – 25.37
24.32
25.37
52W Range17.61 – 29.00
17.61
29.00
67% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
11.0K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
10.4x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Performance
1D
+3.49%
5D
-5.34%
1M
-8.70%
3M
+6.33%
6M
+24.40%
YTD
+33.99%
1Y
+6.60%
Best: YTD (+33.99%)Worst: 1M (-8.70%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev -9% · 73% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 10x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 3884.2 · FCF $2.56/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$133.64M
Revenue TTM$53.00M
Net Income TTM$12.93M
Free Cash Flow$13.65M
Gross Margin73.5%
Net Margin24.4%
Operating Margin26.1%
Return on Equity9.6%
Return on Assets9.0%
Debt / Equity0.00
Current Ratio3884.15
EPS TTM$2.42
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Quarterly lot sales volume and average selling price per lot in Rio Rancho

New entitlement approvals expanding developable land inventory

Albuquerque metro housing starts and builder activity levels

Large commercial land sale transactions (can be lumpy and material)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Land development is highly cyclical, tied directly to housing demand. During recessions, homebuilders reduce lot purchases, extending AMREP's inventory turnover. The 90% net income growth despite -3% revenue decline suggests recent margin expansion, but top-line growth requires robust housing market conditions. New Mexico's economy (government, healthcare, energy) provides some stability versus pure boom-bust markets.

Interest Rates

Rising mortgage rates directly reduce housing affordability, slowing homebuilder demand for lots. The 30-year mortgage rate is critical: each 100bp increase typically reduces buyer purchasing power by 10-12%, forcing builders to slow land acquisitions. AMREP's zero-debt structure insulates it from financing cost increases, but doesn't protect against demand destruction. Lower rates stimulate housing starts and lot absorption.

Key Risks

Geographic concentration in Rio Rancho/Albuquerque creates single-market dependency; adverse local economic conditions (military base closures, Sandia National Labs budget cuts) would disproportionately impact demand

Entitlement risk: regulatory changes, environmental restrictions, or water availability constraints in New Mexico could delay or prevent development of remaining land inventory

Climate/water scarcity: Southwest water rights and drought conditions pose long-term development constraints

Investor Profile

value - Trading at 0.9x book value with 7.6% FCF yield attracts deep-value investors seeking asset-rich, underleveraged companies. The 25% net margin and recent 90% earnings growth appeal to turnaround investors betting on housing cycle recovery. Low liquidity and lack of analyst coverage limit institutional ownership. Suitable for patient capital willing to hold through housing cycles.

Watch on Earnings
Albuquerque metro housing starts and building permits (PERMIT series)30-year fixed mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US) - primary affordability driverNational homebuilder sentiment and stock performance (proxy for lot demand)New Mexico employment growth and population migration trends
Health Radar
3 strong2 watch1 concern
60/100
Liquidity
3884.15Strong
Leverage
0.00Strong
Coverage
0.0xConcern
ROE
9.6%Watch
ROIC
8.5%Watch
Cash
$40MStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE1 analysts
BUY
Buy
1100%
1 Buy (100%)0 Hold (0%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
5/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 42 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 3884.15 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · Before OpenMay 18, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 89 days
PDividend PaymentAug 17, 2026
In 92 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 16.7%

+4.8% vs SMA 50 · +22.3% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI41.8
Momentum fading
MACD-0.01
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$29.00+15.1%
Current
$25.19
EMA 50
$24.82-1.5%
EMA 200
$20.64-18.1%
52W Low
$17.61-30.1%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$17.6167th %ile$29.00
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:1
Dist days:4
Edge:+3 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)12K
Recent Vol (5D)
7K-39%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 1 analyst
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$50.6M
$50.6M$50.6M
$1.95
Low1
FY2026(current)
$54.2M
$54.2M$54.2M
+7.1%$2.11+8.2%
Low1
FY2027
$50.5M
$50.5M$50.5M
-6.8%$1.78-15.6%
Low1
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryAXR
Last 8Q
-134.2%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 4 Estimates rising
-260%
Q3'09
-78%
Q4'09
+14%
Q1'10
-900%
Q3'10
+69%
Q3'10
+129%
Q3'25
-50%
Q4'25
+2%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
6 Buys/0 SellsNet Buying
NET BUYERS$342K bought · $0 sold · 30d window
Dahl James H10 Percent Own…
$29K
May 13
BUY
Dahl James H10 Percent Own…
$84K
May 1
BUY
Dahl James H10 Percent Own…
$139K
Apr 29
BUY
Mcnaney Timothy SDir
$50K
Apr 21
BUY
Dahl James H10 Percent Own…
$41K
Apr 20
BUY
Dahl James H10 Percent Own…
$28K
Apr 17
BUY
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
ROBOTTI ROBERT
522K
2
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
193K
3
Truffle Hound Capital, LLC
160K
4
JB CAPITAL PARTNERS LP
141K
5
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC
119K
6
Oppenheimer & Close, LLC
67K
7
Mink Brook Asset Management LLC
51K
8
CALDWELL SUTTER CAPITAL, INC.
49K
News & Activity

AXR News

About

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Industry
Lessors of Other Real Estate Property
Christopher V. VitalePresident, Chief Executive Officer, Director & Secretary
Adrienne UleauVice President & Chief Financial Officer
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
AXR
$25.19+3.49%$134M10.4-326.1%2558.9%1500
$404.35-3.20%$2.1T30.5+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$132.58-6.05%$307.9B20.7-44.8%1012.0%1500
$88.38-2.58%$303.7B13.6+318.8%1510.7%1500
$148.08-1.13%$282.6B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$181.58-1.83%$281.6B26.9+862.9%1745.9%1500
$183.40-0.23%$256.1B16.8+213.3%1482.4%1500
Sector avg-1.65%20.0+702.6%2197.7%1500