Global automotive production volumes (light vehicle builds drive OEM coating demand, collision rates drive refinish volumes)
Raw material cost inflation/deflation, particularly petrochemical-derived inputs (epoxy, polyurethane resins) and titanium dioxide pigment pricing
Refinish market share gains in key regions (North America, China) and pricing realization versus independent distributors
Operating margin expansion initiatives including manufacturing footprint optimization and SG&A leverage
high - Axalta exhibits strong cyclical correlation to global industrial production and automotive manufacturing. OEM coatings segment directly tied to light vehicle production volumes (historically 75-85M units globally, currently recovering toward normalized levels). Refinish segment correlates with miles driven (collision frequency) and discretionary repair spending, which declines in recessions as consumers defer non-essential bodywork. Industrial coatings demand linked to commercial vehicle production, infrastructure spending, and energy sector capex. Estimated 1.2-1.5x GDP beta on consolidated revenues.
Rising rates negatively impact Axalta through two channels: (1) Higher financing costs on $3.5-4.0B gross debt (mix of fixed and floating rate), with estimated 30-40% floating rate exposure creating ~$15-20M annual EBIT impact per 100bps rate increase; (2) Demand destruction as higher rates reduce automotive affordability (new vehicle sales) and consumer discretionary spending (refinish deferrals). Valuation multiple compression also typical as specialty chemicals trade at 9-12x EV/EBITDA, sensitive to risk-free rate changes.
Electric vehicle adoption altering coating requirements and revenue per vehicle - EVs may require different coating processes, fewer layers, or alternative materials, potentially reducing content per unit by 10-20% long-term
Environmental regulations tightening VOC (volatile organic compound) limits, requiring costly reformulation to waterborne and high-solids coatings, with compliance capex estimated $50-100M over 5-year cycles
Automotive OEM consolidation and vertical integration risk - manufacturers developing in-house coating capabilities or demanding aggressive price concessions
value - Axalta trades at 10-11x EV/EBITDA versus specialty chemical peers at 12-14x, attracting value investors seeking cyclical recovery plays and margin expansion stories. Recent 27% three-month rally suggests momentum investors entering on improving automotive production outlook. Free cash flow yield of 6% appeals to yield-focused investors, though dividend policy remains modest (prioritizing debt reduction). Not a growth story given mature end-markets and -3% revenue decline, but operational improvement and potential private equity interest (Carlyle historical ownership) create event-driven appeal.
Trend
-13.5% vs SMA 50 · -10.8% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $5.3B $5.2B–$5.3B | — | $2.15 | — | ±2% | High13 |
FY2025 | $5.1B $5.1B–$5.1B | ▼ -2.8% | $2.49 | ▲ +15.9% | ±1% | High12 |
FY2026(current) | $5.2B $5.2B–$5.3B | ▲ +2.0% | $2.59 | ▲ +3.9% | ±5% | High12 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
AXTA News
About
singular focus on providing brilliant coatings sets us apart. axalta coating systems is the only leading global coatings company dedicated solely to the development, manufacture and sale of liquid and powder coatings. we serve customers in the automotive, transportation, general industrial and architectural and decorative sectors. our innovative products and services include paint, color matching tools, application technologies and customer training and business management systems. our scale ensures we can deliver innovative coating systems around the world. fast facts • over 145 years of experience in the coatings industry • more than 12,000 people who create, manufacture, distribute and support our products and services • doing business in 130 countries • 35 manufacturing plants around the world • 7 research & development centers on four continents • over 1,800 patents held or pending • 42 training centers to support our refinish customers around the globe • more than 120,
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AXTA◀ | $26.81 | +0.88% | $5.7B | 15.5 | -301.4% | 738.7% | 1500 |
| $404.35 | -3.20% | $2.1T | 30.5 | +3296.8% | 4510.0% | 1500 | |
| $132.58 | -6.05% | $307.9B | 20.7 | -44.8% | 1012.0% | 1500 | |
| $88.38 | -2.58% | $303.7B | 13.6 | +318.8% | 1510.7% | 1500 | |
| $148.08 | -1.13% | $282.6B | 21.0 | +597.3% | 2564.4% | 1500 | |
| $181.58 | -1.83% | $281.6B | 26.9 | +862.9% | 1745.9% | 1500 | |
| $183.40 | -0.23% | $256.1B | 16.8 | +213.3% | 1482.4% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.02% | — | 20.7 | +706.1% | 1937.7% | 1500 |