Atlanta Braves (BATRA)

What Moves the Stock

1. 01On-field performance and playoff probability - postseason games generate $3-5M incremental revenue per home game with minimal variable costs
2. 02Attendance trends at Truist Park - average attendance per game directly impacts gate, concessions, parking revenue (2019 pre-COVID averaged 32,500 per game)
3. 03The Battery Atlanta lease-up rates and tenant sales productivity - occupancy rates and retail sales per square foot drive NOI growth
4. 04MLB collective bargaining dynamics - labor agreements affect revenue sharing, luxury tax thresholds, and cost structure
5. 05Regional economic growth in Atlanta metro - corporate sponsorships, suite sales, and discretionary spending correlate with local GDP
6. 06Baseball operations (~60-65%): ticket sales, suite/premium seating, concessions, merchandise at Truist Park for 81 home games plus potential playoffs
7. 07Media rights (~20-25%): local broadcast deals (Bally Sports South) and MLB national revenue sharing from ESPN, Fox, TBS contracts
8. 08Mixed-use development (~10-15%): The Battery Atlanta rental income from retail tenants, restaurants, office space, hotel operations, and event bookings

BATRA Chart

My Notes

• value/special situation - Tracking stock structure creates complexity and potential discount to intrinsic value.
• Rising rates increase debt service costs on stadium financing and development loans, pressuring cash flow.
• Watch on earnings: Atlanta metro area unemployment rate and GDP growth - drives corporate sponsorship budgets and discretionary spending, Consumer sentiment (University of Michigan) - leading indicator for entertainment spending and ticket demand, MLB attendance trends league-wide - indicates broader industry health beyond team-specific factors.