Argentine peso official exchange rate movements vs USD (USDARS) - devaluation expectations drive ADR premiums
Central bank monetary policy shifts - changes to reference rates directly impact net interest margins
Government fiscal policy and IMF program compliance - affects sovereign risk premium and banking sector stability
Inflation trajectory (CPI running 200%+ YoY as of late 2025) - determines real returns on peso-denominated assets
high - Loan demand correlates directly with Argentine GDP growth, which has been volatile (contracting ~2-3% in 2024-2025 under austerity measures). Consumer lending and SME credit dry up during recessions as unemployment rises and real wages decline. Corporate loan book is concentrated in agriculture, energy, and consumer goods sectors that are highly cyclical. Economic stabilization under current reforms could drive 15-20% real loan growth if successful.
Asset-sensitive balance sheet benefits from rising nominal rates as loan repricing occurs faster than deposit costs adjust. However, real rate increases (nominal rates exceeding inflation) compress lending volumes and increase credit risk. Current environment of 40-50% policy rates with 200%+ inflation creates negative real rates that favor borrowers over savers, supporting loan demand but eroding deposit franchise value. Fed rate policy affects USD funding costs for trade finance operations.
Hyperinflationary accounting regime (IAS 29) creates earnings volatility and comparability challenges - Argentina has experienced cumulative inflation exceeding 100% over three years
Capital controls and multiple exchange rate regimes limit ability to repatriate dividends to parent company and create FX translation losses
Regulatory risk from government intervention in banking sector - historical precedents include forced loan restructurings, deposit freezes (corralito), and asymmetric pesification
value/special situations - Attracts contrarian investors betting on Argentine economic stabilization under Milei reforms, with potential for 3-5x returns if country normalizes. Also appeals to emerging market specialists comfortable with sovereign risk and hyperinflation accounting. High volatility and illiquidity deter index funds and risk-averse institutions. Dividend yield is negligible due to capital retention requirements and currency controls preventing repatriation.
Trend
-4.3% vs SMA 50 · -3.6% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $3.5T $2.4T–$4.2T | — | $980.65 | — | ±32% | Moderate3 |
FY2026(current) | $4.2T $2.9T–$5.0T | ▲ +21.0% | $1594.36 | ▲ +62.6% | ±32% | Moderate4 |
FY2027 | $5.1T $3.6T–$6.1T | ▲ +21.9% | $2747.06 | ▲ +72.3% | ±32% | Moderate4 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
BBAR News
About
BBVA Argentina, formerly BBVA Banco Francés, is a financial institution in Argentina
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BBAR◀ | $14.26 | -3.71% | $2.9B | 19.4 | +2824.0% | 436.8% | 1500 |
| $404.35 | -3.20% | $2.1T | 30.5 | +3296.8% | 4510.0% | 1500 | |
| $132.58 | -6.05% | $307.9B | 20.7 | -44.8% | 1012.0% | 1500 | |
| $88.38 | -2.58% | $303.7B | 13.6 | +318.8% | 1510.7% | 1500 | |
| $148.08 | -1.13% | $282.6B | 21.0 | +597.3% | 2564.4% | 1500 | |
| $181.58 | -1.83% | $281.6B | 26.9 | +862.9% | 1745.9% | 1500 | |
| $183.40 | -0.23% | $256.1B | 16.8 | +213.3% | 1482.4% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.68% | — | 21.3 | +1152.6% | 1894.6% | 1500 |