BCML
Next earnings: Jul 16, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-1.70%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 46Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
29.99
Open
29.81
Day Range29.37 – 29.90
29.37
29.90
52W Range25.84 – 33.15
25.84
33.15
50% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
32.5K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
12.2x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.01%
Beta
0.39
Low vol
Performance
1D
-1.70%
5D
-0.14%
1M
-1.70%
3M
-2.58%
6M
+7.79%
YTD
+0.27%
1Y
+11.92%
Best: 1Y (+11.92%)Worst: 3M (-2.58%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +4% YoY · 70% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 12x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.0 (low) · FCF $2.76/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$321.61M
Revenue TTM$144.16M
Net Income TTM$26.41M
Free Cash Flow$30.09M
Gross Margin70.0%
Net Margin18.3%
Operating Margin24.9%
Return on Equity7.8%
Return on Assets1.0%
Debt / Equity0.06
Current Ratio0.00
EPS TTM$2.42
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Net interest margin trajectory - sensitivity to Fed funds rate changes and deposit pricing competition in the Bay Area market

Loan portfolio growth rate and mix shift between C&I, CRE, and SBA loans with different risk/return profiles

Credit quality metrics - non-performing asset ratios, charge-offs, and provision expense relative to loan growth

Deposit franchise stability - cost of deposits and ability to retain low-cost commercial checking accounts amid rate competition

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Commercial lending demand is directly tied to Bay Area business formation, expansion activity, and commercial real estate transactions. Small business loan demand contracts sharply in recessions as companies defer expansion and reduce working capital needs. CRE lending volumes depend on property transaction activity and development projects. Bay Area economy has elevated exposure to technology sector cycles, venture capital funding availability, and office space demand dynamics.

Interest Rates

Net interest margin is highly sensitive to Fed funds rate and yield curve shape. Rising short-term rates historically expand NIM as loan yields reprice faster than deposit costs, though 2022-2024 cycle showed deposit beta compression as competition intensified. Inverted yield curve (as of early 2026) pressures profitability by raising funding costs while limiting loan yield expansion. Mortgage rate levels affect CRE refinancing activity and property values underlying loan collateral. Current low ROE of 7.2% suggests margin compression challenges.

Key Risks

Geographic concentration in San Francisco Bay Area creates correlated credit risk if regional economy weakens - particularly exposed to technology sector layoffs, office vacancy rates, and commercial real estate valuation declines

Community bank consolidation pressure - scale disadvantages in technology investment, regulatory compliance costs, and funding costs versus larger competitors may force strategic sale

Digital banking disruption reducing demand for relationship banking model as fintech platforms offer faster, lower-cost business lending alternatives

Investor Profile

value - Trading at 1.0x price-to-book suggests market skepticism about profitability and growth prospects, attracting value investors seeking potential M&A premium or turnaround in net interest margin. Low ROE and modest growth rates limit appeal to growth investors. 8.6% FCF yield may attract income-focused investors if sustainable, though dividend policy unclear from data provided. Recent 7.9% one-year return lags broader bank indices.

Watch on Earnings
Federal funds effective rate and forward guidance - primary driver of net interest margin trajectory10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread (yield curve shape) - impacts loan-deposit spread and profitabilityBay Area unemployment rate and technology sector employment trends - leading indicators of loan demand and credit qualityCommercial real estate price indices for San Francisco market - collateral value support for CRE loan portfolio
Health Radar
1 strong5 concern
23/100
Liquidity
0.00Concern
Leverage
0.06Strong
Coverage
0.9xConcern
ROE
7.8%Concern
ROIC
1.0%Concern
Cash
$27MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE5 analysts
BUY
+15.3%upside to target
Buy
5100%
5 Buy (100%)0 Hold (0%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 46 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.00 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 6, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 3, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 27, 2026
In 114 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 11.4%

+1.6% vs SMA 50 · +13.2% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI46.2
Neutral territory
MACD+0.62
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$33.15+12.4%
EMA 50
$29.72+0.8%
Current
$29.48
EMA 200
$26.05-11.6%
52W Low
$25.84-12.3%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$25.8450th %ile$33.15
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:4
Edge:Even
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)26K
Recent Vol (5D)
22K-15%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 2 analysts

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$97.5M
$97.0M$98.0M
$2.12
±1%
Low1
FY2024
$97.8M
$97.4M$98.3M
+0.4%$1.98-6.9%
±1%
Low2
FY2025
$101.3M
$100.7M$101.8M
+3.5%$2.21+11.8%
±2%
Low2
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryBCML
Last 8Q
+1.4%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 4 Estimates rising
-9%
Q2'24
+4%
Q3'24
+6%
Q4'24
-2%
Q2'25
+5%
Q3'25
-12%
Q4'25
-3%
Q1'26
+21%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Zacks Investment Re…Buy
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
4 Buys/2 SellsNet Buying
Guarini George J.Dir
$743K
Mar 3
SELL
Guarini George J.Dir
$2K
Mar 13
BUY
Guarini George J.Dir
$18K
Mar 13
BUY
Laverne Robert G.Dir
$197K
Nov 10
SELL
Guarini George J.President and …
$14K
Sep 6
BUY
Guarini George J.Dir
$35K
Sep 6
BUY
Financials
Dividends3.56% yield
+87.3% avg annual growth
Annual Yield3.56%
Quarterly Div.$0.3000
Est. Annual / Share$1.20
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
STRATEGIC VALUE BANK PARTNERS LLC
26K
2
WOODWARD DIVERSIFIED CAPITAL, LLC
22K
3
STRS OHIO
18K
4
Nuveen, LLC
15K
5
Police & Firemen's Retirement System of New Jersey
3K
6
Winch Advisory Services, LLC
1K
7
GAMMA Investing LLC
673
8
State of Alaska, Department of Revenue
362
News & Activity

BCML News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

mission statement: bay commercial bank will conduct business with an eye toward "speed of execution" on behalf of its clients, "pride and appreciation" on behalf of its employees, and "impressive financial performance" on behalf of its investors. bay commercial bank was conceived with the realization that clients deserve access to the decision-makers. they deserve the opportunity to have relationships with contacts at their bank that bring knowledge to the table; knowledge that can be used to advance the goals of the client's business. in short, they deserve what they themselves strive to provide to their clients: knowledgeable and professional service.

Industry
Monetary Authorities-Central Bank
CEO
George Guarini
Kevin Lewis ThompsonExecutive VP & CFO
Janet L. KingSenior EVP, COO & Director
Izabella L. ZhuExecutive Vice President & Chief Risk Officer of United Business Bank
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
BCML
$29.48-1.70%$322M12.2+299.7%1687.3%1500
$307.65-1.54%$829.7B14.6+330.7%2039.3%1502
$326.85-0.36%$626.5B28.1+1134.0%5014.5%1498
$504.74+1.87%$446.8B28.9+1641.6%4564.7%1488
$52.19-1.97%$374.6B11.9-45.1%1592.6%1501
$188.03-1.13%$298.6B16.2+1147.7%1466.4%1516
$903.27-2.21%$268.0B15.2-138.4%1373.0%1515
Sector avg-1.01%18.2+624.3%2534.0%1503