CENTA
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+1.36%Positive session
Volume
1
Volume0.9× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 56Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
32.27
Open
32.35
Day Range32.23 – 32.82
32.23
32.82
52W Range25.97 – 37.35
25.97
37.35
59% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
252.5K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
13.3x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
0.65
Low vol
Performance
1D
+1.36%
5D
-2.88%
1M
+1.71%
3M
-1.39%
6M
+15.14%
YTD
+12.06%
1Y
+5.52%
Best: 6M (+15.14%)Worst: 5D (-2.88%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev -4% · 32% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 13x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 3.4 · FCF $4.64/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$2.25B
Revenue TTM$3.09B
Net Income TTM$155.68M
Free Cash Flow$284.99M
Gross Margin32.1%
Net Margin5.0%
Operating Margin7.7%
Return on Equity9.9%
Return on Assets4.3%
Debt / Equity1.02
Current Ratio3.42
EPS TTM$2.54
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Spring selling season performance (March-June) drives 50%+ of annual earnings; weather patterns (late frost, drought) directly impact Garden segment demand and inventory turns

Commodity input cost trends: urea/fertilizer prices (Garden), plastic resin prices (Pet packaging/products), grain costs (pet food/treats) with 3-6 month lag to pricing actions

Retail inventory destocking cycles at major customers (Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's represent estimated 35-40% of revenue); channel inventory levels drive order volatility

Pet industry same-store sales trends and consumer trade-down behavior between premium/value brands; company positioned in mid-tier price points

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - Garden segment is discretionary (homeowners defer lawn care in recessions) but benefits from housing turnover and home improvement activity. Pet segment historically resilient (pet ownership stable) but premium product mix vulnerable to trade-down in downturns. Revenue declined 2.2% in recent period despite strong employment, suggesting category normalization post-COVID pet/garden boom. Company typically sees 5-10% revenue decline in recessions but maintains profitability due to non-discretionary pet food/basic supplies component.

Interest Rates

Moderate sensitivity through two channels: (1) ~$600M debt at variable/refinanceable rates creates 50-75 bps EBIT margin impact per 100 bps rate move; (2) Higher mortgage rates reduce housing turnover and new homeowner lawn/garden spending (estimated 20-25% of Garden demand from move-related purchases). Rising rates also pressure valuation multiple (stock trades 9.6x EV/EBITDA vs 11-13x in low-rate environment). However, strong 13.4% FCF yield provides cushion.

Key Risks

Retail channel consolidation: Walmart/Home Depot/Lowe's concentration creates pricing pressure and private label competition; estimated 35-40% revenue from top 3 customers limits negotiating leverage

E-commerce disruption: Chewy, Amazon capturing pet supply share (estimated 30-35% of pet products now online vs 15% pre-COVID); company's wholesale model less suited to direct-to-consumer trends

Climate volatility: Extreme weather (drought, excessive rain, temperature swings) disrupts spring selling season; long-term warming trends may shift geographic demand patterns for grass seed varieties

Investor Profile

value - Stock trades 0.8x P/S and 9.6x EV/EBITDA below historical 11-13x range, attracting value investors seeking margin recovery and FCF yield (13.4%). Recent 57% EPS growth and 25% 3-month return suggests momentum crossover interest. Dividend not mentioned but FCF generation supports potential capital return. Defensive characteristics (pet essentials, lawn care) appeal to low-volatility mandates, though 50% earnings concentration in Q2/Q3 creates quarterly volatility.

Watch on Earnings
CPIAUCSL (CPI All Items): Tracks consumer inflation impacting discretionary spending on lawn/garden and premium pet productsUMCSENT (Consumer Sentiment): Leading indicator for discretionary home/garden spending and pet product premiumization trendsHOUST (Housing Starts) and PERMIT (Building Permits): New home construction drives lawn establishment and initial pet ownership; 6-12 month lead time to Garden revenueNGUSD (Natural Gas futures): Key input for nitrogen fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process); correlates with urea/ammonia costs impacting Garden COGS
Health Radar
2 strong3 watch1 concern
57/100
Liquidity
3.42Strong
Leverage
1.02Watch
Coverage
4.1xWatch
ROE
9.9%Watch
ROIC
5.8%Concern
Cash
$882MStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE13 analysts
HOLD
+52.9%upside to target
Buy
754%
Hold
538%
Sell
18%
7 Buy (54%)5 Hold (38%)1 Sell (8%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
4 of 5 signals bullish
9/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 56 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 3.42 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 13, 2026
In 99 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 5.5%

-1.5% vs SMA 50 · +3.9% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI56.0
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.57
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$37.35+14.2%
EMA 50
$32.76+0.2%
Current
$32.71
EMA 200
$31.85-2.6%
52W Low
$25.97-20.6%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$25.9759th %ile$37.35
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:8
Dist days:4
Edge:+4 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)413K
Recent Vol (5D)
338K-18%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 4 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$3.1B
$3.1B$3.1B
$2.62
±1%
Moderate4
FY2026(current)
$3.1B
$3.1B$3.1B
+0.4%$2.84+8.1%
±1%
Moderate4
FY2027
$3.2B
$3.2B$3.2B
+2.1%$2.99+5.4%
±3%
Moderate4
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 8 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryCENTA
Last 8Q
+128.9%avg beat
Beat 8 of 8 quarters Estimates rising
+30%
Q2'24
+10%
Q3'24
+18%
Q4'24
+800%
Q1'25
+11%
Q2'25
+16%
Q3'25
+55%
Q4'25
+91%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Canaccord GenuityBuy
Jan 16
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Ranelli JohnDir
$127K
Feb 19
SELL
Hanson John EdwardPresident, Pet…
$174K
Feb 17
SELL
Dougher BrendanDir
$108K
Feb 10
SELL
Metz Christopher TDir
$309K
Nov 28
SELL
Brown William EDir
$547K
Aug 28
SELL
Brown William EDir
$2.7M
Aug 29
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
265K
2
Hillsdale Investment Management Inc.
229K
3
Nuveen, LLC
109K
4
GHP Investment Advisors, Inc.
103K
5
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS
79K
6
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
72K
7
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
48K
8
Olstein Capital Management, L.P.
45K
News & Activity

CENTA News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

Central Garden & Pet is a market leader in the Garden and Pet industries. For over 40 years, Central has proudly nurtured happy and healthy homes by bringing innovative and trusted solutions to its consumers and customers.

CEO
Timothy Cofer
Chris WalterSenior Vice President & Chief Information Officer
Howard A. MachekSenior Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer
John D. WalkerPresident of Garden Consumer Products
PeersConsumer Defensive(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
$32.71+1.36%$2.0B14.2-223.1%520.4%1500
$130.79+0.35%$1.0T47.6+472.5%307.0%1517
$1016.42+0.36%$450.9B52.8+816.7%294.3%1503
$78.48+0.37%$337.8B24.6+187.0%2734.0%1506
$144.90+1.05%$337.5B21.0+29.2%1895.3%1488
$169.46+0.16%$264.1B23.9+731.3%2791.8%1502
$155.04+0.29%$211.9B24.2+225.5%877.3%1497
Sector avg+0.56%29.8+319.9%1345.7%1502