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CENX(CENX)
CENX
Next earnings: Aug 6, 2026 · After close
Signal
Mixed1↑1↓
PRICE
Prev Close
61.44
Open
58.88
Day Range55.86 – 59.83
55.86
59.83
52W Range15.13 – 68.69
15.13
68.69
78% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
2.1M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
16.9x
EPS (TTM)
—
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.78
High vol
Performance
1D
-7.52%5D
-8.34%1M↓
-11.34%3M
+23.41%6M
+97.43%YTD
+45.02%1Y↑
+243.95%Best: 1Y (+243.95%)Worst: 1M (-11.34%)
Quick Read
Trend—Insufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev +8% · 13% gross marginValuation
FAIR
P/E 17x vs ~20x sectorHealth
STRONG
CR 2.3 · FCF $0.28/shBullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$5.62B
Revenue TTM$2.54B
Net Income TTM$349.60M
Free Cash Flow$27.30M
Gross Margin12.7%
Net Margin13.7%
Operating Margin8.1%
Return on Equity40.6%
Return on Assets13.2%
Debt / Equity0.47
Current Ratio2.30
EPS TTM$3.53
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock
LME aluminum spot prices and forward curve - direct correlation to revenue realization
US domestic aluminum premiums (Midwest Premium) - currently elevated due to Section 232 tariffs and supply constraints
Power cost inflation and contract renegotiations - electricity represents 30-40% of cash production costs
Capacity utilization decisions and restart announcements - company has curtailed capacity that can be restarted when economics improve
Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle
high - Aluminum demand is highly cyclical, driven by industrial production, automotive manufacturing, construction activity, and aerospace orders. During recessions, demand contracts sharply as customers destock and defer capital projects. The company's 140% one-year return reflects recovery from depressed 2023-2024 conditions as industrial activity stabilized.
Interest Rates
Moderate sensitivity through two channels: (1) Higher rates increase borrowing costs on the company's $390M net debt position (D/E of 0.83), pressuring margins given already-thin profitability. (2) Rising rates typically strengthen the USD, which pressures dollar-denominated LME aluminum prices and reduces export competitiveness. However, domestic premiums can partially offset this. The company's negative FCF makes refinancing risk material.
Key Risks
Energy transition and decarbonization pressure - aluminum smelting is carbon-intensive (12-16 tons CO2 per ton aluminum), facing potential carbon taxes or regulatory restrictions that could render high-emission facilities uneconomic
Chinese overcapacity - China produces 58% of global aluminum and has 45M tons of capacity, creating persistent oversupply risk that caps LME prices despite Western production cuts
Substitution risk in automotive and packaging applications from advanced high-strength steels, composites, and lightweighting alternatives
Investor Profile
momentum/value - The 140% one-year return attracted momentum traders betting on aluminum price recovery and manufacturing reshoring themes. Value investors are drawn to the 1.8x P/S ratio and potential for mean reversion if aluminum sustains above $2,500/MT. However, negative FCF and high cyclicality deter quality-focused investors. The stock appeals to commodity bulls and tactical traders rather than long-term compounders.
Watch on Earnings
LME 3-month aluminum futures price - primary revenue driverMidwest Premium (US domestic aluminum premium over LME) - currently $0.18-0.22/lb, adds 15-20% to realized pricesNatural gas prices (Henry Hub) - proxy for power cost inflation riskUS Industrial Production Index - leading indicator for aluminum demand
Health Radar
3 strong2 watch1 concern
60/100Liquidity
2.30Strong
Leverage
0.47Strong
Coverage
4.4xWatch
ROE
40.6%Strong
ROIC
9.5%Watch
Cash
$136MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE22 analysts
HOLD
▲ +33.8%upside to target
L $75.00
Med $76.00consensus
H $77.00Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
●
✓RSI RangeRSI 66 — Bullish momentum
Volume
●
✓Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
●
✗Last EarningsMissed estimates
●
~Analyst ConsensusHold
●
✓LiquidityCurrent Ratio 2.30 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 17, 2026
In 93 days
FinancialsFull statements →
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →Trend
▲ UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 51.9%
+5.0% vs SMA 50 · +59.5% vs SMA 200
Momentum
RSI66.0Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+2.84Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$68.69+20.9%
Current
$56.82
EMA 50
$54.21-4.6%
EMA 200
$36.88-35.1%
52W Low
$15.13-73.4%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$15.1378th %ile$68.69
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze SetupAccumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:2
Dist days:1
Edge:+1 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)2.0M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.9M-6%
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Earnings & Analysts
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Consensus of 2 analysts
Analyst revisions:Revenue↑ Revised Up
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $2.1B $2.0B–$2.2B | — | $2.23 | — | ±4% | Low1 |
FY2024 | $2.1B $2.0B–$2.2B | ▼ -0.2% | $1.72 | ▼ -22.9% | ±4% | Low2 |
FY2025 | $2.5B $2.5B–$2.6B | ▲ +21.0% | $2.18 | ▲ +27.1% | ±4% | Low2 |
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryCENX
Last 8Q
-68.0%avg beat
Beat 2 of 8 quartersMissed 6↑ Estimates rising-250%
Q3'24
+44%
Q4'24
+12%
Q1'25
-47%
Q2'25
-115%
Q3'25
-81%
Q4'25
-98%
Q1'26
-9%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced heightAnalyst Activity
All ratings →No recent activity
B. Riley SecuritiesReduce
Mar 12
DOWNGRADE
Wolfe ResearchBuy → Underperform
Sep 30
DOWNGRADE
Wolfe ResearchBuy
Sep 30
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Trpkovski Peter AEVP, CFO
$845K
Mar 25
SELL
Gary Jesse EDir
$8.3M
Mar 16
SELL
Calloway Kenneth LSVP, Human Res…
$1.0M
Mar 12
SELL
Hoffman Robert FSVP, IT and CAO
$595K
Mar 11
SELL
Hoffman Robert FSVP, IT and CAO
$563K
Mar 4
SELL
Aboud MattSVP, Strategy …
$637K
Mar 2
SELL
Financials
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
1
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29.7M▼2
BlackRock, Inc.
9.0M▼3
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4.7M▲4
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2.7M▼5
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2.7M▲6
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
2.2M▼7
Invesco Ltd.
2.1M▲8
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC
2.0M▲News & Activity
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About
century aluminum is a primary aluminium producer, supplying standard-grade, high-purity and value-added primary aluminum products. century has approximately 1,300 employees and is an equal opportunity employer. we have operations in hawesville, ky., sebree, ky. mt. holly, s.c. and grundartangi, iceland, with headquarters located in chicago, ill. in addition to our primary aluminum assets, we operate a carbon anode and cathode manufacturing facility located in vlissingen, the netherlands. our strategic objective is to maximize the financial returns we generate for our stockholders by: - optimizing our safety and environmental performance; - improving our cost structure for our existing assets by managing costs and improving productivity and efficiency; - pursuing upstream investment opportunities in bauxite mining, alumina refining and the production of other key operating supplies; and - expanding our primary aluminum business by improving and investing in the facilities we currently o
Sector
Industry
Alumina Refining and Primary Aluminum Production
CEO
Michael Bless
Country
United States
Website
Agust HafbergSenior Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer
Gunnar GudlaugssonExecutive Vice President of Global Operations
Jesse E. GaryPresident, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Peers— Basic Materials(7 companies)
Screen sector →| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CENX◀ | $56.82 | -7.52% | $5.6B | 16.1 | +1385.4% | 165.4% | 1500 |
| $506.11 | -1.08% | $234.1B | 33.0 | +297.2% | 2029.7% | 1506 | |
| $109.06 | -6.25% | $116.4B | 14.0 | +1907.6% | 3206.3% | 1507 | |
| $63.01 | -4.73% | $90.6B | 33.3 | +112.4% | 856.2% | 1516 | |
| $300.10 | -2.94% | $74.0B | 28.4 | +206.0% | 1089.5% | 1477 | |
| $247.62 | -0.51% | $69.7B | 33.2 | +215.9% | 1290.7% | 1473 | |
| $295.38 | -1.50% | $65.8B | 31.2 | -52.3% | -327.7% | 1502 | |
| Sector avg | — | -3.50% | — | 27.0 | +581.7% | 1187.2% | 1497 |