10/8/26
Century Aluminum (CENX)
ThesisCentury Aluminum: the story is balanced — LME aluminum spot prices and forward curve - direct correlation to revenue realization
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $3.4B — +33.5% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
- 01LME aluminum spot prices and forward curve - direct correlation to revenue realization
- 02US domestic aluminum premiums (Midwest Premium) - currently elevated due to Section 232 tariffs and supply constraints
- 03Power cost inflation and contract renegotiations - electricity represents 30-40% of cash production costs
- 04Capacity utilization decisions and restart announcements - company has curtailed capacity that can be restarted when economics improve
- 05Trade policy and tariffs - Section 232 aluminum tariffs (10%) and potential changes under new administrations
- 06Primary aluminum sales to industrial customers (aerospace, automotive, building/construction) - estimated 85-90% of revenue
- 07Scrap recycling and tolling arrangements - estimated 5-10%
- 08Alumina sales from Icelandic operations - estimated 5%
My Notes
- momentum/value - The 140% one-year return attracted momentum traders betting on aluminum price recovery and manufacturing reshoring themes.
- Moderate sensitivity through two channels: (1) Higher rates increase borrowing costs on the company's $390M net debt position (D/E of 0.83)…
- Watch on earnings: LME 3-month aluminum futures price - primary revenue driver, Midwest Premium (US domestic aluminum premium over LME) - currently $0.18-0.22/lb, adds 15-20% to realized prices, Natural gas prices (Henry Hub) - proxy for power cost inflation risk.
One Sentence Summary:
Century Aluminum: the story is balanced — lme aluminum spot prices and forward curve - direct correlation to revenue realization.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
